银河期货油脂日报-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short-term, the volatility of the oil market is expected to increase due to geopolitical factors, but overall it will remain in a volatile state, making unilateral trading difficult. It is recommended to wait and see, and not to chase the price blindly [9]. - For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage on the P59 and Y59 contracts when the price is high [10]. - For options, the recommendation is to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract were 8370, 9002, and 9486 respectively, with price changes of 20, 8, and 22. Spot prices and basis varied by region and variety, with some basis showing declines [2]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 30, -22, and 85, with price changes of 2, -12, and 31 respectively [2]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 05 contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were -632, 1116, and 484, with price changes of 12, no change, and 14 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.96, with a change of 0.01 [2]. - Import Profits: The on - paper profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -184, and the on - paper profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -1527 [2]. - Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories: In the 9th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 70.6, 78.7, and 27.1 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In February 2026, Malaysia's MPOA production data showed significant declines in various regions, with an overall decline of 16.24%. Indonesia's meteorological agency warned of a longer and more severe drought in 2026, with the drought starting in April and peaking in August [4]. - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: The futures price fluctuated slightly higher. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 78.67 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.03 million tons. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable. It is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to geopolitical changes in the Middle East [5][6]. - Soybean Oil: The futures price fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 58.86 million tons, with an actual operating rate of 16.19%. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 91.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.16 million tons. The basis was stable with a slight decline, and it is recommended to maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [5][6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The futures price fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 1.2 million tons, with an operating rate of 3.20%. As of February 27, 2026, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 15.1 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 27.1 million tons. The import profit was inverted, and the basis is expected to weaken. Although there are short - term supports, the increase in rapeseed arrivals will suppress the price increase [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to geopolitical factors, short - term oil price volatility may increase, but overall it will remain volatile. Unilateral trading is difficult, so it is recommended to wait and see and not chase the price blindly [9]. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage on the P59 and Y59 contracts when the price is high [10]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [14][15][19][22].