国债期货延续窄幅震荡整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to trade in a narrow range. The main market logic has shifted from the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the geopolitical crisis to macro - concerns about the soaring global inflation triggered by the tight global energy supply. The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for interest rate cuts, but they will likely be structural policies, and the possibility of an across - the - board interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly trade in a narrow range in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On March 4, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 40.5 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 40.5 billion yuan. Wind data showed that 409.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369 billion yuan [5] - On March 4, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in the non - manufacturing prosperity level [5]