美伊冲突下的原油市场走向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US - Iran conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the crude oil market towards tail - risk, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. The transportation of crude oil and condensate through the Strait of Hormuz is about 14 million barrels per day, and petroleum products are about 6 million barrels per day, accounting for about 26% of global trade volume and about 20% of consumption [4]. - The duration of the closure is crucial. If the closure lasts for a week, there are ways to supplement the supply; if it exceeds a week, the probability of hyper - inflation is relatively high [4]. - Possible solutions include pre - emptive buying by Asian countries, OPEC+ production increase, China's reduction in strategic reserve purchases, US release of strategic reserves, relaxation of sanctions on maritime oil, and price - induced demand suppression. However, these solutions are difficult to quickly offset the short - term large - scale supply shock [4]. - The conflict has spill - over effects on refineries and the chemical industry, including production disruptions in some Middle - Eastern refineries, preventive shutdowns of Iranian methanol and ethylene glycol plants, and preventive production cuts in some Chinese refineries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. US - Iran Conflict and Its Impact on the Oil Market - Conflict Background: The US - Iran conflict started from the domestic unrest in Iran and escalated. In January - February 2026, the US and Iran held three rounds of indirect nuclear talks. On February 28, the US and Israel jointly raided Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. The conflict has lasted for two months so far, longer than the 12 - day Israel - Iran war in June 2025. Before the conflict escalated on February 28, crude oil buyers were purchasing large amounts of Middle - Eastern oil, leading to an increase in the Middle - Eastern crude oil premium and freight rates [10]. - Impact on the Oil Market: Different scenarios of the US - Iran conflict have different impacts on oil supply and prices. For example, in the scenario of no supply disruption, the risk premium will quickly subside, and Brent crude oil will fall back to the range of $60 - 65 per barrel; in the scenario of limited counter - attack, Brent crude oil will briefly surge to $75 - 80 per barrel and then quickly fall back to $60 - 65 per barrel; in the scenario of partial disruption of Iranian exports, the price trend is between the second and fourth scenarios; in the scenario of an impact on fleet transportation efficiency, the price trend is similar to that during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in early 2022, with a significant increase in Brent crude oil and a sharp increase in spot premiums and freight rates [6]. 3.2. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz - Transport Volume: The transportation volume of petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz is about 20 million barrels per day, including about 14 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate and about 6 million barrels per day of petroleum products, accounting for 27% of global trade volume and about 20% of global oil consumption [15]. - Historical Cases: There have been several historical events related to the Strait of Hormuz. During the Iran - Iraq war from 1980 - 1988, there was an "oil - tanker war" where the transportation volume dropped by about 40% and oil prices soared. In 2011 - 2012, 2018 - 2019, and after the assassination of Soleimani in 2020, Iran threatened to block the strait but did not implement it. In March 2026, Iran officially announced and implemented a full - scale blockade for the first time [19][20][21]. - Impact on the Economy: If the closure lasts for 1 - 7 days, oil prices will increase by $30 - 50, inflation expectations will spike, and the equity market will decline; if it lasts for 2 - 4 weeks, financial conditions will tighten, inflation will accelerate, and fragile economies will approach recession; if it lasts for more than 30 days, the probability of recession is over 75%, and global inflation will accelerate by 2 - 4 percentage points; if it lasts for 60 - 90 days, oil prices will rise to a level that destroys demand through an economic crisis [28]. 3.3. US Energy Strategy - Shale Oil Production: Due to the depletion of high - quality blocks, technological bottlenecks, and low capital expenditure, US shale oil production has reached its peak in recent years. The EIA predicts a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 barrels per day in US crude oil production in 2026. The US's tariff on Canada and Mexico has led to a decrease in crude oil imports, an increase in the API value of refinery feedstock, and a decrease in oil product yield [33]. - Overseas Expansion: Since 2025, the US has implemented an "America First Energy Plan", supporting US oil companies to acquire overseas resources and expand production capacity. It has restarted oil and gas leases in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, and increased investment in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and Canada. In 2026, the US - Iran conflict has led to a re - structuring of the Middle - Eastern energy pattern, with US oil companies withdrawing from Iran and seizing more shares in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq [34]. 3.4. OPEC+ Production Increase - Production Increase Process: In April 2025, OPEC+ started to increase production. From April to September, it fully restored the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut. In October 2025, it started the second - stage production increase. In December 2025, it continued to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day and then suspended production increase in Q1 2026. In April 2026, it increased production by 206,000 barrels per day [42][43][46]. - Production Increase Effect: The actual production increase effect is lower than the planned amount. After the production increase, the restricted production capacity of OPEC+ has dropped to 3.6 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 1.8 million barrels per day [47][54]. 3.5. Speculative Demand and Inventory Split - China's Strategic Reserves: In 2025, China carried out continuous strategic reserves due to low oil prices and frequent geopolitical conflicts. The speculative demand brought about an average year - on - year increase of 200,000 - 300,000 barrels per day. China still has a demand for further reserves. If the supply from the Strait of Hormuz is completely cut off, last year's strategic reserves are only enough for half a month [69]. - Above - water Inventory: In 2025, the US's continuous sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela led to an increase in the scale of the shadow fleet and a large - scale increase in off - balance - sheet oil inventory, with about 200 million barrels of off - balance - sheet crude oil inventory currently [70]. - Dual Pricing under Sanctions: Sanctioned oil is sold at a deep discount, competing with regular oil. Buyers need to make a choice between low - cost but high - risk sanctioned oil and other markets. Sanctioned oil is mostly in the form of floating storage [77].