华金期货碳酸锂3月策略报告：短期供需恢复双增，中期高需求及补库逻辑犹存-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures in February first declined and then rose, with violent price fluctuations. The overall short - term supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, but in the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. The risk points include the slowdown of demand growth, non - mine supply, and the ramping up of overseas salt lake production [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 February Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In February 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures first declined and then rose. Affected by factors such as strong demand, continuous inventory reduction, and short - term tightening of African lithium ore supply, the price bottomed out and then strongly rebounded. Near the end of the month, due to the rapid short - term price increase, the price slightly weakened and fluctuated after hitting the previous resistance level. The price fluctuated between 120,000 and 190,000 yuan during the month. The monthly cumulative trading volume was 7.08 million lots, a 49% decrease from the previous month, and the open interest was 710,000 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous month. The main contract LC2605 had a monthly increase of 18.8% and an amplitude of 43% [7][8][9] 3.1.2 January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In February, the spot price of lithium carbonate bottomed out and then rose. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 168,500 yuan/ton, a 7% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide also increased by 7%. The basis fluctuated violently between - 12,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan, and at the end of February, the basis was at - 660 yuan/ton, with the spot and futures prices almost the same [13][14][18] 3.1.3 Price Quotes of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In February, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased to a certain extent. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose by 13% to 2,385 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 16% due to market capacity release, dragging down the price of electrolyte by 13%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was 6%, and that of ternary materials was 3% [21] 3.2 Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 2,175 US dollars/ton to 2,385 US dollars/ton, a 10% increase. The price of lithium mica concentrate rose from 4,965 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, a 13% increase. The production profit of lithium carbonate first decreased and then recovered. The production profit of purchasing spodumene was about 12,000 yuan at the end of the month, and that of purchasing mica was about 5,200 yuan [25][28] 3.2.2 Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In February, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory decreased significantly. The inventory of traders decreased significantly, and the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly comes from salt lakes and spodumene. In 2026, it is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. The复产 of the Ngungaju factory will increase the LCE capacity by 11,000 tons this year. The CGP3 capacity of Greenbushes is 520,000 tons of concentrate, equivalent to 65,000 tons of LCE production, and it is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year. The new production of Mt Marion and Wodgina lithium mines is 17,000 tons of LCE. If the export ban in Zimbabwe is implemented in the short term, it will affect the annual supply of 10,000 - 20,000 tons of LCE. If the ban persists, the annual supply of lithium carbonate in Zimbabwe will be reduced by at least 80,000 tons [29][34][35] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production - In February, the production of lithium carbonate was 82,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 30% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene. The overall capacity utilization rate in February was 47%, and it is expected to recover to 59% in March. It is estimated that the supply of lithium carbonate in March will increase by 28%, setting a new production high [37][44][45] 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 23,100 tons. Chile and Argentina are the main import sources. In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,900 tons, a 24.83% increase from the previous month and a 10.59% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate in China from January to February will increase significantly, and the import volume in March is also expected to remain at a high level [47][50] 3.3.3 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In February, the production of lithium hydroxide was 23,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 14% increase year - on - year. In December, the import of lithium hydroxide was 5,093 tons, and the export was 6,318 tons, with a net export of 1,225 tons. Due to the decrease in production in February, the net export will also decline, and the apparent demand in February is expected to be 21,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [51][53] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.4.1 New Energy Vehicle Sales - In January 2026, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 945,000, a 0.1% increase year - on - year, accounting for 40.3% of the total vehicle sales. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles decreased from 52.3% in December last year to 40%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase in March [54][60] 3.4.2 Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In February, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was 169 GWh, including 134 GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries and 26 GWh of ternary batteries. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries decreased by 13% from the previous month and increased by 61% year - on - year. The monthly production of power cells was 102 GWh, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 24% increase year - on - year. The monthly production of energy - storage cells was 56 GWh, an 11% decrease from the previous month and an 87% increase year - on - year. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [63][64] 3.4.3 Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - In February, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 53% increase year - on - year. The production of ternary materials was 71,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 48% increase year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream demand decreased by 10 - 15% month - on - month. It is expected that the production of cathode materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, and batteries will increase significantly in March [67][74] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of February, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 1 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.2 days. The inventory of smelters was 18,000 tons, at a historical low. The overall market was still in a low - inventory state. It is expected that the inventory depletion intensity will weaken in March, and there may even be enterprise restocking behavior. The exchange inventory at the end of February was 38,200 tons [75][79][80] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Forecast - In the short term, the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the social inventory is in a low - inventory depletion state. However, affected by the rapid recovery and growth of supply in March, the supply - demand tension will be alleviated to some extent, and there will be a certain supply surplus in March. In the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. If the price of lithium carbonate further declines in March, it may boost downstream procurement and restocking demand [84][86]