可转债周报20260228：地缘冲突后转债市场如何演进？-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After reviewing the two high - intensity geopolitical conflicts in the past five years, the short - to - medium - term performance of convertible bonds may be weak. In the current situation, it is recommended to focus on pro - cyclical sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals. Considering the convergence of the stock index futures basis, convertible bonds may face short - term correction risks. [2][4][7] - The A - share market strengthened during the week, with the small - and medium - cap and pro - cyclical manufacturing sectors outperforming, and the trading volume slightly expanding. [2][4][7] - The convertible bond market oscillated weakly, the medium - cap convertible bonds were relatively strong, and the trading volume converged. The overall valuation was compressed, especially in the high - parity and high - market - value ranges. The implied volatility declined but remained at a high level, and the median market value slightly increased. [2][4][7] - Structurally, cyclical sectors such as steel and non - ferrous metals were relatively good, and some of the top - performing targets showed negative premiums. The primary issuance was stable. In terms of terms, the willingness to downward - revise was weak, while the probability of non - call increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of new bonds and the disturbances of term games. [2][4][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts and the Convertible Bond Market - In the two high - intensity geopolitical conflicts in the past five years (the Russia - Ukraine conflict in late February 2022 and the escalation of the Palestine - Israel conflict in early October 2023), the short - to - medium - term performance of CSI Convertible Bond Index was weak. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index performed relatively well in the short term after the Russia - Ukraine conflict. [11] - In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the petroleum and petrochemical industry performed well in the short term, while in the Palestine - Israel conflict, the social service industry performed well in the short term. Given the current situation is more similar to the energy - power game during the Russia - Ukraine conflict, attention can be paid to energy and cyclical industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals. [11][12] - From a futures perspective, there may be short - term correction risks. When the annualized yield of the next - month continuous basis of CSI 500 futures approaches zero, the convertible bond market often faces short - term correction pressure. The high correlation between the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI 500 Index (97.9% from the beginning of 2025 to the current Friday) indicates that this futures sentiment indicator can also reflect the sentiment changes of convertible bond market investors. [12] 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - From February 24 to February 28, 2026, the equity market strengthened overall, and the pro - cyclical direction performed well. Among them, metal zinc, metal lead, phosphate chemicals, small - metal concepts, and metal copper in the non - ferrous metal direction were good, while AI corpus, Xiaohongshu concept, Kuaishou concept, short - drama games, and Sora concept (text - to - video) in the AI Internet direction were under pressure. [16] 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Stock Indexes Strengthened, with Medium - and Small - Cap Indexes Performing Strongly - The main A - share stock indexes strengthened overall during the week. The Shenzhen Component Index performed well, while the ChiNext Index was relatively weak. In terms of style, medium - and small - cap indexes were relatively strong, while the science - innovation and large - cap indexes were relatively weak. [16] - In terms of funds, the net outflow of market main funds converged during the week. The average daily trading volume expanded, and the net outflow of main funds slightly decreased. [17] - The cyclical manufacturing sectors in the A - share market were strong during the week. Sectors such as metal materials and mining, environmental protection, national defense and military industry, and chemicals led the gains, while sectors such as social services, insurance, and media Internet were relatively weak. [21] - In terms of trading volume, the electronics, metal materials and mining, and power and new energy equipment sectors were the focus of trading during the week. The trading volume of most sectors rebounded compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume of the public utilities sector increased by more than 62% week - on - week. [22] - The congestion degree of market sectors still differed significantly during the week. The congestion degree of cyclical directions such as petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and steel increased, while that of sectors such as commercial retail, media, and transportation decreased. [24] 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Oscillated Weakly, with the Large - Cap Index Performing Weakly - From February 24 to February 28, 2026, the convertible bond market oscillated slightly weakly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index oscillated weakly, with the large - cap convertible bond index performing relatively weakly and the medium - cap convertible bond index performing relatively strongly. The trading volume converged slightly. [28] - In terms of valuation, when divided by the parity range, the overall valuation of the convertible bond market was compressed, except for a slight increase in the 120 - 130 yuan parity range, and the conversion premium rate in the 140 - yuan - and - above parity range was significantly compressed. When divided by the market value range, the overall valuation was also compressed, except for a slight increase in the 110 - 120 yuan market value range, and the conversion premium rate in the 150 - yuan - and - above market value range was significantly compressed. [32] - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance oscillated weakly during the week, still at a historical high. The median market value of convertible bonds oscillated and slightly increased, remaining higher than the high point in August 2025. [36] - Convertible bonds in cyclical sectors performed relatively well. Sectors such as steel, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and basic chemicals led the gains. In terms of trading volume, the trading was mainly concentrated in the power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics sectors, with the combined trading volume of these three sectors accounting for more than 35%. [39] - Most individual convertible bonds weakened during the week. Only 143 convertible bonds had a range increase greater than or equal to 0, accounting for 37.0% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. Among the convertible bonds in the conversion period, the top five in terms of weekly increase were Youcai Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Yitian Convertible Bond, and Huaya Convertible Bond, while the top five in terms of weekly decrease were Fuxin Convertible Bond, Hengshuai Convertible Bond, Ruichuang Convertible Bond, Huicheng Convertible Bond, and Xinfu Convertible Bond. Some of the top - five - increasing individual bonds had negative premiums. [44] 3.4 Convertible Bond Issuance and Term Tracking 3.4.1 Primary - Market Pre - issuance Situation - One convertible bond, Aiwei Convertible Bond, was listed during the week from February 24 to February 28, 2026. [47] - Five listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans in the primary market during the week, with two in the exchange - acceptance stage and three having passed the general meeting of shareholders. [48] - The total disclosed scale of ongoing projects at the exchange - acceptance stage and later was 8.302 billion yuan. There were 5 companies approved by the CSRC with a planned issuance scale of 439 million yuan, 7 companies having passed the listing committee meeting with a planned issuance scale of 697 million yuan, and 44 companies in the exchange - acceptance stage with a planned issuance scale of 6.989 billion yuan. [49][52] 3.4.2 Downward - Revision - Related Announcement Summary - No convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revision during the week. Three convertible bonds announced not to downward - revise, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.5. Two convertible bonds proposed downward revision, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 1.6. [53][58] 3.4.3 Redemption - Related Announcement Summary - Two convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption during the week. Seven convertible bonds announced not to redeem in advance, and four convertible bonds announced early redemption. [59]