2月制造业PMI点评：春节影响之外的三点关注

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The February PMI was mainly influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, with the slowdown in production and new orders in line with seasonality. In years when the Spring Festival falls in mid - February, the PMI in March usually recovers sharply and is likely to return above the boom - bust line due to concentrated resumption of work and end - of - quarter sprint demand [4][12]. - For the bond market, three aspects of marginal changes in the PMI are worth noting: price, export, and investment. In February, the factory - gate price expansion was relatively strong, the new export orders declined significantly, and investment demand may be building up [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - Supply and Demand: New orders continued to decline seasonally in February, with a more significant contraction. The gap between new orders and new export orders widened to 3.6%, indicating that export orders contracted more than domestic orders. Production was dragged down by the Spring Festival, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 pct to 49.6%, and high - energy - consuming industries had the largest production decline [2][18][19]. - Foreign Trade: New export orders decreased by 2.8 pct to 45.0%, the lowest level in the same period since 2019. Small - sized enterprises' business climate also dropped significantly, suggesting a possible short - term decline in external demand due to the Spring Festival and geopolitical factors [2][22]. - Price: The purchase price of raw materials decreased by 1.3 pct to 54.8%, while the factory - gate price remained at 50.6%. The PPI month - on - month may still be strong, as the factory - gate price maintained a strong expansion slope [24]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory increased slightly by 0.1 pct, while the finished - product inventory decreased by 2.8 pct to 45.8% due to the Spring Festival, indicating accelerated passive destocking of finished products [31]. 2. Non - manufacturing PMI - Construction Industry: The construction industry PMI contracted more severely in February due to project shutdowns during the Spring Festival. However, new orders, employees, and business activity expectations improved, suggesting strong investment demand in the future, especially in March when projects resume work [3][33]. - Service Industry: The service industry PMI increased by 0.2 pct to 49.7% in February, boosted by holiday consumption. Industries such as retail, aviation, accommodation, catering, and cultural and entertainment reached a business climate level of 50% - 55% [3][35].