瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, showing a loose situation. The pig price is under pressure, but the impact of the second - fattening entry on supply and price needs special attention. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 0.31%, with a minimum of 11,105 yuan/ton, continuing the downward trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract position was 169,609 lots, an increase of 4,945 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots, a decrease of 6 lots; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions was - 48,466 lots, a decrease of 2,031 lots [3] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis was - 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,403.14 yuan, an increase of 5.1 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.07, an increase of 19.16; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [3] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, in February 2026, the breeding sows of key sample enterprises decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, the inventory of commercial pigs increased by 1.77% month - on - month, and the slaughter of commercial pigs decreased by 12.23% month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, the farming end gradually resumed the slaughter rhythm. Combining the sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, it is speculated that the supply pressure in the near - term remains. On the demand side, slaughtering enterprises resumed work one after another after the festival, and the slaughter volume rebounded from the low level during the holiday. However, as the temperature rises, consumption enters the traditional off - season, and the slaughter volume is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high [3]