PVC日报：高开后震荡运行-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. Although the current PVC price is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory and weak downstream demand, with expected policies and maintenance after the Spring Festival and a significant rise in crude oil prices, it is expected that PVC will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region continues to drop by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC start - up rate increases by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream start - up rate of PVC rebounds by 17.11 percentage points to 17.11%, but it is 6.34 percentage points lower than the same period last lunar year. Export orders increase slightly after the festival, but are expected to be low in March due to completed pre - sales and the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st. India's anti - subsidy tax investigation also decreases export expectations. Social inventory increases significantly during the Spring Festival and continues to rise, remaining at a high level. The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the start - up expectations of some production enterprises decline, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. In February, which is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, the spot trading is light after the Spring Festival. The increase in PVC start - up rate, continuous increase in social inventory, and continuous decline in calcium carbide prices put pressure on the PVC price [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract opens higher and then runs with reduced positions and fluctuations. The lowest price is 4894 yuan/ton, the highest price is 5053 yuan/ton, and it finally closes at 4995 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.31%. The position volume decreases by 83,763 lots to 1,065,884 lots [2] 3.3 Basis - On March 4th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rises to 4800 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract is 4995 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 195 yuan/ton, strengthening by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking 3.4.1 Supply - The PVC start - up rate increases by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua had a trial production in December 2025 [4] 3.4.2 Demand - The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion further decline. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment is 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area is 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, among which the residential sales area decreases by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume is 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, among which the residential sales volume decreases by 13.0%. The new construction area of houses is 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%, among which the new construction area of residential houses is 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses is 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses is 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%, among which the completion area of residential houses is 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of February 22nd, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreases by 92.37% week - on - week. The commercial housing transaction is sluggish during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to whether the favorable real estate policies after the festival can boost commercial housing sales [5] 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of February 27th, the PVC social inventory increases by 0.71% week - on - week to 1.353 million tons, 58.02% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increases significantly during the Spring Festival and continues to rise this week, remaining at a high level [6]