PP日报：高开后震荡运行-20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared with that before the Spring Festival. Currently, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change. On March 4, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, while the production ratio of standard-grade drawn wire increased to around 31%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and it has been continuously decreasing after the Spring Festival. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in recent years. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil price has risen significantly, which has a significant boosting effect on PP. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. It is expected that PP will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of the downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival [1]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Analysis - As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared with that before the Spring Festival. On March 4, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, while the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to around 31%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and it has been continuously decreasing after the Spring Festival. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in recent years. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which has a significant boosting effect on PP. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. It is expected that PP will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of the downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher and then decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 7,188 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,646 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7,506 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 5.27%. The position decreased by 38,423 lots to 464,543 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The price of drawn wire was reported at 7,010 - 7,480 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 4, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, while the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to around 31% [6]. - Demand: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared with that before the Spring Festival. Currently, the downstream has not fully resumed work, showing a seasonal change [6]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 850,000 tons, which was 50,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in recent years [6]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $83 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $845 per ton [6].