棉花、棉纱日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton have certain support. Considering the reduction in global cotton production and the potential for increased consumption, there may be a tight - balance situation. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Disk: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 75, 50, and 45 respectively; the closing price of CY05 decreased by 45, and CY09 increased by 20. The trading volume of CF01 increased by 219, while that of CF05 and CF09 decreased by 25667 and 8358 respectively. The trading volume of CY05 increased by 1324, and CY09 increased by 7. The open interest of CF01 increased by 1238, CF09 increased by 2369, and CY05 decreased by 499 [2] - Spot Price: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 62, Cot A increased from 74.95 to 75.90, the price of FC Index:M: to - port decreased by 1.00, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 59. The prices of other spot products remained unchanged [2] - Spread: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 65, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 75, CY05 - CF05 increased by 5, and CY09 - CF09 increased by 65. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread increased by 115, the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread increased by 61, and the internal - external yarn spread decreased by 59 [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: On March 4, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1472 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged from the previous day. In December 2025/26, India's棉纱 export volume was 10.14 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01% and a month - on - month increase of 11.64%. From August to December 2025, India's total棉纱 export volume was 45.6 tons. In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month, with an import value of 17.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.33% and a month - on - month increase of 16.45% [5][6] - Trading Logic: The fundamentals of cotton have no obvious negative factors. Global cotton production has been reduced by 3% (US production has been reduced, and China's by 9%). The supply is expected to be 2525 and consumption 2614, showing a relatively tight situation. As of February 12, the signing of US cotton improved, with 10.57 tons signed, a month - on - month increase of 5.33 tons, and the cumulative signing was 192.79 tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [7] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] - Cotton Yarn Industry News: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light. Spinning mills are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and downstream fabric mills and traders are making rigid purchases. Some yarn mills reduced prices yesterday, but most are still waiting and seeing, with a trading discount of 200 - 300 yuan. The operating rate of inland spinning mills is gradually recovering. The operating rate of fabric mills is basically stable, but production is limited due to a shortage of workers. The in - production orders are mainly from before the Spring Festival, and new orders are still scarce [10][12] 3.3 Options - Option Contract Information: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively. The implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - Volatility and Strategy: The 60 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14][15] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff internal - external cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][17][21]