黑色金属日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: No clear indication of investment rating [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, white stars represent a short - term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1][9] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, white stars represent a short - term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1][9] - Coke: ★☆☆, one star represents a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1][9] - Coking coal: ★★☆, two stars represent a long - position view, with a clear upward trend and the market trend is fermenting [1][9] - Silicomanganese: No clear indication of investment rating [7] - Ferrosilicon: No clear indication of investment rating [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of low - profit operation, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is expected to continue in a shrinking and volatile pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has an improved demand margin but a strong expectation of supply surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and the downstream iron - making is at a low level. The prices are expected to rise under the influence of market sentiment and policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be mainly in a strong - fluctuating pattern under the influence of cost, demand, and policy expectations [7][8] 3. Summary of Each Product Steel - After the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production remained low, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil increased, production was stable, and inventory continued to accumulate with relatively large pressure [2] - After the holiday, blast furnace restarted, and hot metal production increased slightly. However, due to poor steel mill profits and production - limit expectations during the conference, the subsequent increase may be slow [2] - Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The market may continue to fluctuate with low trading volume in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume increased from a high level, slightly lower than the same period last year. Domestic port inventory is near the annual high with some structural support [3] - Terminal demand improved after the holiday, but the steel mill restart may be affected by the important conference. The demand margin improved, but the supply surplus expectation is strong [3] - External geopolitical conflicts may support the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] Coke - The first - round price cut was basically implemented. Coking profit is average, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is general [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream hot metal is at a low level with average steel profits. The price may rise driven by coking coal under market sentiment [4] Coking Coal - The daily price fluctuated strongly. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume was 1452 vehicles yesterday. Attention should be paid to coal mine restart [6] - Coking coal inventory decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain degree of restocking. The price may rise under market sentiment and policy expectations [6] Silicomanganese - The international conflict is beneficial to the crude oil price, which in turn affects the manganese ore shipping cost, being relatively beneficial to the cost of silicomanganese [7] - The manganese ore spot price increased slightly, and port inventory began to accumulate. The demand side, hot metal production, increased slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Ferrosilicon - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the semi - coke price decreased slightly. The main production areas are still in a loss state [8] - Hot metal production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient. Supply changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]