人民币热点：更长的战争意味着更强的美元吗？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the disturbance of geopolitical shocks to the US dollar index may gradually subside, and fundamental logic will gradually dominate. The US economic fundamentals are the core driver of the current strengthening of the US dollar index. The impact of rising crude oil prices on US dollar liquidity and the Fed's monetary policy has been over - amplified. The strength of the US dollar is not only driven by inflation and policy expectations, but also supported by the resilience of the US economic fundamentals. The impact of the geopolitical conflict on the market is short - term, and market pricing will return to the fundamental line. If the rapid rise of the US dollar index lacks fundamental support, it may give back the geopolitical risk premium after the risk - aversion sentiment fades. The RMB exchange rate may continue to be under pressure in the short term due to the strength of the US dollar and policy adjustments [25]. - In the long term, a protracted war will weaken the fiscal sustainability of the US, which is bearish for the US dollar in the long run. The RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by domestic economic fundamentals, export resilience, and the trend of the US dollar index. If the domestic economy continues to recover and exports remain resilient, the long - term appreciation trend of the RMB is hard to change [26]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Logic and Asset Performance after the Conflict - In the early stage of the conflict, the market followed the risk - aversion logic. After the news on February 28, the gold dark - market price soared, and the yield of domestic inter - bank bonds declined. Subsequently, due to differences in the expected duration of the war, the market logic shifted from simple risk - aversion to more complex narratives such as inflation and AI investment in the Middle East. After the logic shift, most assets except the US dollar and oil prices fell, and concerns about the liquidity crisis increased. However, the current macro - liquidity situation does not require excessive worry [3][6]. 2. Impact on the US Dollar and Fed's Policy - In the short - term panic and redemption shock, investors may have over - estimated the impact of rising oil prices on US dollar liquidity and the Fed's monetary policy. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been affected, with the probability of a rate cut in June decreasing and the expected number of rate cuts for the whole year dropping to about 1.6 times. The US dollar's strength is not only due to inflation and expectations but also to the resilience of the US economic fundamentals. The rise of the US dollar index is not solely supported by oil prices [11][13]. 3. Probability of a Protracted War and Its Impact - The probability of the geopolitical conflict turning into a protracted war is increasing. Iran's internal power transfer is complex, and the "decentralized mosaic defense" system makes it difficult to control the escalation of the conflict. Historically, the emotional impact of war on asset prices usually peaks in about two weeks and then asset prices return to the fundamental pricing logic. Even if the current conflict becomes a protracted war, its severe impact on the market is likely to be short - term [17][22]. 4. Impact of a Protracted War on the US Fiscal System - A protracted war will push up oil prices, drive up US inflation, and may lead to a further delay in the Fed's interest rate cuts or even a restart of rate hikes. The rise in US Treasury yields will put pressure on the US. The US has a high debt - to - GDP ratio and lacks the fiscal flexibility to support a large - scale protracted war. The direct cost of large - scale wars in the US has always been high, and there are also long - term follow - up expenses [23].