Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-04 11:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International corn market: The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, boosting international corn prices. The high yield and sufficient supply of US corn in 2025 will suppress farmers' willingness to expand planting in 2026, with the planting area expected to decrease from 98.8 million acres in 2025 to 94 million acres in 2026 [2]. - Domestic corn market: In the Northeast, the post - holiday selling pressure has decreased, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Grain - using enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and the purchase prices have been raised but the increase rate has slowed. In the North China - Huanghuai region, snow has led to stagnant corn trading, low supply, and increased purchase demand from processing enterprises. Corn futures prices have been rising strongly [2]. - Corn starch market: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has increased after the holiday, increasing supply pressure and inventory. As of March 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 121.9 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35%. However, downstream demand has also recovered, and the supply - demand structure is acceptable. Supported by the strong corn market, the starch market has also shown a strong and volatile trend [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (5 - 9) was - 6 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 215,253 hands, a decrease of 11,902 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 0 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (3 - 5) was 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 26,583 hands, a decrease of 1408 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 12,500 hands [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract was 446.25 cents/bushel; the total position was 1,656,135 contracts, a decrease of 123,787 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was 8828 contracts, an increase of 16,663 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2403.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.1 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2400 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn was 2009.64 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.33 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn was 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2670 yuan/ton, 2850 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main contract was - 22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn was 450 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Planting area and yield: The predicted planting areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 94 million acres, 36.93 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 44.96 million hectares, and an unspecified area respectively. The predicted yields were 432.34 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 301.24 million tons, and 29 million tons respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises were 25.8 million tons, 221 million tons, and 385.2 million tons respectively. The starch enterprise inventory was 119.8 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn was 80 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch was 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly feed production volume was 30.086 million tons [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin were - 38 yuan/ton, 39 yuan/ton, and - 96 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises were 54.46% and 45.68% respectively, with the latter increasing by 4.33 percentage points [2]. Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn were 8.11% and 7.33% respectively [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options on corn were 11.56% [2]. Industry News - The conflict between the US and Israel attacking Iran has increased freight and insurance costs, making the Asian agricultural product market highly nervous about the impact on trade [2]. - Brazil's CONAB reported that as of February 28, the planting progress of the second - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 64.9%, compared with 46.7% last week, 69.5% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57.2% [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture stated that due to the record - high corn yield in the US in 2025, low prices, and sufficient supply, farmers' willingness to expand planting in 2026 will be suppressed [2].