Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-04 11:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, market liquidity tightening may increase the selling pressure in the precious metals market, but the escalating situation between the US and Iran may drive the safe - haven buying demand in the precious metals market, and there is strong support below. In the medium to long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credit remains unchanged, and gold still has appeal as a preferred hedge asset. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,153.06 yuan/gram, down 28.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 21,854 yuan/kilogram, up 209 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 126,419 lots, down 13,351 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 5,406 lots, down 668 lots. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 418,498 lots, up 25,719 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 482,764 lots, down 115,387 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 105,033 kilograms, down 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 294,823 kilograms, down 12,661 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,153.18 yuan, down 28.82 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No. 1 silver is 20,939 yuan, down 1,748 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.12 yuan/gram, up 0.12 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 915 yuan/gram, down 1,957 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,099.04 tons, down 2.29 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,981.38 tons, up 79.14 tons. - The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC is 159,177 contracts, down 738 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC is 22,260 contracts, down 1,743 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,302.8 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.27, up 0.72; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.77, up 0.01. - The VIX volatility index is 23.57, up 2.13; the CBOE gold volatility indicator is 38.77, up 3.94. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.35, up 0.06; the gold - silver ratio is 61.91, up 5.75 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump vowed to "spare no expense" on the Iran issue, triggering a new round of stock selling, rising energy prices, and reigniting market inflation concerns. Traders' bets on the Fed's second interest rate cut within the year dropped to 50%. - The conflict in the Middle East continues to spread. Iran is counter - attacking while being bombed, claiming to have hit multiple US military targets in the Middle East. Israel launched a "massive strike" on Tehran, claiming to have destroyed many Iranian ballistic missile - related facilities. - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Fed Chairman, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the level before the 2008 crisis. - Fed's Williams said that if inflation continues to fall after the impact of tariffs fades, the Fed will have reason to further cut interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that if inflation cools, one or two interest rate cuts later this year may be appropriate, but the Middle East war may lead to a situation where the Fed pauses action for a longer time [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On March 5th at 20:30, the US January trade balance data will be released. - On March 4th at 21:15, the US ADP private employment report was announced; at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was announced. - On March 5th at 20:30, the number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in February will be released [2].