国债期货日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March, the bond market may be slightly affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the overall main line still revolves around the policy expectations of the Two Sessions. The supply pressure of government bonds is generally controllable, and the "weak recovery" pattern of the fundamentals has not been reversed, providing bottom support for the bond market. As the 2026 Two Sessions are about to begin, the market's game on policy expectations intensifies, which may bring periodic fluctuations. It is expected that the bond futures in March will continue the range - bound pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为108.555，环比上涨0.05%，成交量68845，较前一日增加8010；TF主力收盘价106.145，环比上涨0.08%，成交量60049，较前一日增加20957；TS主力收盘价102.518，环比上涨0.05%，成交量35956，较前一日增加11331；TL主力收盘价112.770，环比下跌0.03%，成交量62998，较前一日减少11958 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2606 - 2603价差为0.24，环比下降0.01；T2606 - 2603价差为0.02，环比上升0.01；TF2606 - 2603价差为0.10，环比上升0.00；TS2606 - 2603价差为0.01，环比上升0.02；T06 - TL06价差为 - 4.21，环比上升0.06；TF06 - T06价差为 - 2.41，环比上升0.02；TS06 - T06价差为 - 6.04，环比下降0.01；TS06 - TF06价差为 - 3.63，环比下降0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量308558，较前一日增加7191；T前20名多头持仓264713，较前一日增加5397；T前20名空头持仓285631，较前一日增加6393；T前20名净持仓20918，较前一日增加996；TF主力持仓量161209，较前一日增加5872；TF前20名多头持仓143574，较前一日增加3751；TF前20名空头持仓165893，较前一日增加6851；TF前20名净持仓 - 22319，较前一日增加3100；TS主力持仓量68744，较前一日增加1836；TS前20名多头持仓56516，较前一日增加747；TS前20名空头持仓64831，较前一日增加2267；TS前20名净持仓8315，较前一日增加1520；TL主力持仓量134669，较前一日增加703；TL前20名多头持仓129986，较前一日减少115；TL前20名空头持仓141195，较前一日增加516；TL前20名净持仓 - 11209，较前一日增加631 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 230004.IB(6y）净价108.3879，环比上涨0.0485；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，环比上涨0.0543；250014.IB(4y）净价100.3246，环比上涨0.0689；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比上涨0.0366；250024.IB(1.6y)净价100.0529，环比上涨0.0281；250025.IB(1.6y)净价102.6471，环比上涨0.0188；220008.IB(17y)净价119.8304，环比上涨0.1109；220024.IB(18y)净价116.156，环比上涨0.1620 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1年期国债收益率1.2850%，环比下降0.75bp；3年期国债收益率1.3600%，环比下降0.50bp；5年期国债收益率1.5350%，环比上升0.50bp；7年期国债收益率1.6550%，环比上升0.40bp；10年期国债收益率1.7960%，环比上升0.50bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.2837%，环比上升3.61bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.2660%，环比下降0.10bp；银质押7天利率1.4268%，环比下降1.56bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比下降3.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4300%，环比下降1.75bp；Shibor14天利率1.4540%，环比下降4.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1年期LPR利率3.00%，环比无变化；5年期LPR利率3.5%，环比无变化 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模0亿，到期规模4095亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净回笼4095亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 国新办将于3月5日上午11时30分举行吹风会，解读《政府工作报告》并答记者问；十四届全国人大四次会议大会发言人表示中国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，中国是外商理想、安全、有为的投资目的地；央行公布2026年2月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放3000亿元，7天期逆回购净回笼1205亿元，公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元 [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - 3月6日21:30关注美国2月失业率、美国2月非农就业人口变动；3月5日十四届全国人大四次会议在北京召开 [3]