瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in both supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals will present a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with supply growing slightly faster than demand. The aluminum ingot inventory will still accumulate. It is also recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position and control risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in both supply and demand. Similar to the above, it is advised to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position and manage risks [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 24,795 yuan/ton, up 890 yuan; the main alumina futures contract is 2,782 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spreads of Shanghai aluminum and alumina are - 185 yuan/ton and - 44 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing [2]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 263,422 hands, 307,900 hands, and 6,388 hands respectively. The former two increase, while the latter decreases [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum inventories are 461,550 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventories are 355,986 tons, up 58,646 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventories are 71,694 tons, down 1,041 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 3,275 US dollars/ton, up 90 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.57, up 0.07 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan; the alumina spot price is 2,610 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina are 1,000 yuan/ton, - 405 yuan/ton, and - 172 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of cast aluminum alloy and electrolytic aluminum decreases, while that of alumina increases [2]. - Premiums and Discounts: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 4.36 US dollars/ton, up 14.65 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Prices: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong is 18,650 yuan/ton and 18,050 yuan/ton respectively, both increasing [2]. - Quantities: The import quantity of aluminum scrap in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export quantity is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export quantity of alumina is 210,000 tons, up 40,000 tons; the import quantity is 227,800 tons, down 4,600 tons [2]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 204,900 tons, up 313,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Quantities: The import quantity of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export quantity is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, up 40,000 tons [2]. - Output and Rates: The output of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.79%, up 0.48 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Outputs: The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 664,900 tons, down 19,100 tons; the output of aluminum alloy is 1.825 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 1.075 million vehicles [2]. - Other Indicators: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum are 42.69% and 34.12% respectively, both increasing; the implied volatility of the main Shanghai aluminum at - the - money option is 22.24%, down 0.0017% [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 2.03, up 0.1455 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate cuts due to war and inflation issues. - China's February manufacturing PMI decreased, non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased [2]. - The US February ISM manufacturing index is 52.4, higher than expected [2]. - Six Chinese ministries jointly issued a guidance to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [2]. - Eurozone inflation accelerated unexpectedly in February [2].