Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-04 11:09Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Rapeseed meal: With the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and a significant drop in Canadian rapeseed tariffs, Canadian rapeseed and meal will flow back to the domestic market, increasing far - month supply pressure. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, rapeseed meal demand is mainly rigid. Affected by the rise of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has been oscillating strongly recently, suitable for short - term trading [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already priced it in. Affected by the rise in international oil prices, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9486 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2303 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) were 705.9 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.7 Canadian dollars [2]. - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 85 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 53 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Positions: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 277,988 lots, up 5,120 lots; rapeseed meal was 880,720 lots, down 7,478 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil was - 10,896 lots, down 1,705 lots; for rapeseed meal was - 215,678 lots, down 2,532 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 625 warehouse receipts, unchanged; rapeseed meal had 1,000 warehouse receipts, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,100 yuan/ton; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,490 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,187.5 yuan/ton, down 168.75 yuan [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 4, down 0.04; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 614 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 187 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the rapeseed - palm oil spot spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecasted rapeseed production in Canada (2026/27) was 1.92 million tons, down from the previous year's 2.18 million tons [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 556,000 tons, up 536,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2.2 million tons, up 500,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 2.382 million tons, up 235,000 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 2 million tons, up 1.25 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.2%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 100,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 65,000 tons, up 5,000 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 2.61 million tons, up 190,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 929,000 tons, down 6,000 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 80,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 2.98 million tons, up 230,000 tons [2]. - Delivery volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was - 18,000 tons, down 18,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 54,000 tons, up 54,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, up 606,000 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.52%, up 0.45%; put options was 20.52%, up 0.6%. For rapeseed oil, call options was 17.07%, down 1.12%; put options was 17.04%, down 1.13% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.76%, down 0.78%; 60 - day was 14.5%, down 0.13%. For rapeseed oil, 20 - day was 16.57%, down 4.55%; 60 - day was 18.18%, up 0.15% [2]. Industry News - On March 3 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures continued to rise as the risk of war in Iran led to a significant increase in the prices of crude oil and related energy commodities. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 706.60 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture stated at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. South American soybean harvest is progressing, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase [2]. - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicted that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 1.92 million tons, lower than the previous year's 2.18 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 165,000 tons, lower than the previous year's 275,000 tons [2]. - The USDA Outlook Forum predicted that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2].