每日核心期货品种分析-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - Losers: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].