沪铜日报：有色承压-20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened low and moved high today, showing weakness during the session. Middle - East geopolitical conflicts have led to capital risk - aversion, increased inflation expectations due to the war, a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and a delay in the interest - rate cut date, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The downstream copper products industry is expected to continue to be under pressure due to the off - season and high copper prices. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the session. The US President Trump announced to provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran claims to fully control the strait. In February, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month - on - month (a 3.13% decline), increased by 7.96% year - on - year, and was 110 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, and may reach a record high. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper in China is expected to increase, and the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports. The downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, weakening the demand at the copper products end. [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 115 yuan/ton. On March 3, 2026, the LME official price was $12,864/ton, and the spot premium was - $44/ton. [4] 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of February 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $50.97/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.02 cents/pound. [9] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 302,500 tons, an increase of 1,970 tons from the previous period. As of March 2, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,100 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 257,700 tons, unchanged from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 601,300 short tons, an increase of 175 short tons from the previous period. [13]