螺纹日报：两会限产提供短期支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求恢复-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current rebar market is in a game stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" [6]. - Short - term production contraction coexists with weak demand, and high inventory suppresses price elasticity. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by cost [6]. - If demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 42,377 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 710,699 lots. The short - term average price broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3061 yuan/ton, the highest was 3085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3071 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.13% [2]. - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 119 yuan/ton to the spot price [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from a high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower than the same period of the previous year. The output in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, a decrease of 546,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decline of 1.5716 million tons, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating a weaker expectation of demand recovery this year [4]. - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower than the same period of the previous year. Factory inventory was 2.3284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,300 tons. Social inventory was 5.6776 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 727,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 614,100 tons. The total inventory was 8.006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 845,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4][5]. - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Cost and profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support was weakening. The profitability rate of steel mills remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure was emerging on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support was weakening [5]. - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectation for the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. Central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, urban renewal and other projects were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6]. - Bearish factors: Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, cost support is weakening, inventory is continuously accumulating, the de - stocking speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6]. Short - term View Summary - On Wednesday, the rebar open interest decreased, the trading volume shrank, and it closed with a doji. Pay attention to the resistance at the intersection of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages above, and the short - term support at the previous low. The Two Sessions are being held this week, and the expectation of production restrictions during the Two Sessions provides short - term support. The situation between the US and Iran has escalated, but it has limited impact on rebar [6].