沥青日报：高开后震荡下行-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil prices in the near future, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week-on-week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9%. After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries slowly resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 4 percentage points to 4% week-on-week. During the Spring Festival holiday, the supply in Shandong was at a low level, and the logistics was stagnant, resulting in a significant decrease in its shipments. The national shipments decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons week-on-week, at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years. As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13 [1][4] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong increased, but the basis dropped to a relatively low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to -130 yuan/ton [1][3] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There are reports that the large trader Vitol China offers a discount of $5 per barrel for Venezuelan crude oil, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13 per barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. In addition, the current attacks by the US and Israel on Iran will affect the supply of Iranian raw materials, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 2.35% to 3,660 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,570 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,751 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 14,266 to 96,594 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to -130 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On the fundamental side, on the supply side, some main refineries in the south are producing intermittently. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week-on-week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment increased by -5.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - October 2025, but it is still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry increased by -6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a situation of cumulative year-on-year negative growth. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from -1.1% from January to November 2025 to -2.2% [4] - Downstream: As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries slowly resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 4 percentage points to 4% week-on-week [1][4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival holiday, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]