苹果日报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The apple fundamentals are strong. The cold storage inventory of apples is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, with a decline of 3.2%. The inventory is only higher than that in the 2018/19 fruit season. Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the pre - Spring Festival shipment and warehousing situation is acceptable. After the Spring Festival, from March to April is a relatively off - season for other fruits to be on the market, and the recent apple shipment situation has improved, with the inventory removal speed accelerating compared to last week. As March enters the delivery month, the market pays attention to whether the cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of the May contract of apples are indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking orders for closing positions. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, with a change of - 0.30 compared to the next working day. The prices of various types of apples such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.97, with no change [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 is 8596, up 68 from the previous close; AP05 is 10449, up 166 from the previous close; AP10 is 8748, up 104 from the previous close. The spreads between different contracts also have corresponding changes, such as AP01 - AP05 is - 1853, down 98; AP05 - AP10 is 1701, up 62; AP10 - AP01 is 152, up 36 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 compared to different contracts has decreased. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 596, down 68; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 748.0, down 104; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2449, down 166 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Apple Market News: As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, with a decline of 3.2%. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume in December 2025 was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the western production area, the prices of some specifications of goods have increased slightly due to more customers looking at the goods and good enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality goods. The mainstream market in the Shandong production area is stable, with the quoted prices of high - quality goods of individual storage merchants slightly increased, but the actual transaction prices have not changed significantly. The market arrival is good, the shipment is stable, and the price is stable. The prices of apples in Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan and Shandong Yantai Qixia are stable, and the transaction is smooth [8]. - Trading Logic: The apple fundamentals are strong. The cold - storage inventory is low, the pre - Spring Festival shipment is acceptable, and the post - Spring Festival shipment has improved. As March enters the delivery month, the market focuses on delivery requirements and warehouse - receipt costs. The May contract has strong fundamentals, but the price increase today is large, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [6]. - Trading Strategy: For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips; for the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; for the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples across the country, and the cold - storage apple outbound volume, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [11][12][14]