油粕日报：油粕分化-20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not directly blocked exports, but the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing potential pressure on the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US. Before the soybean reserve release is announced, the oil - meal ratio is likely to remain in a volatile trend. The short - term Middle - East situation has boosted the oil sector, causing the oil - meal ratio to widen again [1]. - The tense Middle - East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil, which has indirectly driven the rebound of oils and fats. It is estimated that the short - term oil and fat market will continue to be strong, but the development of the Middle - East situation needs attention [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of February 21, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 41.7%, lower than 48.4% in the same period last year but higher than the five - year average of 38.4%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 81.3%, compared with 80.4% last year and a five - year average of 75.1%. In Parana state, the harvest progress was 37%, compared with 49% last year and a five - year average of 31.6% [1]. - Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. If the conflict persists, some shipping will be affected, and the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing [1]. - US soybean exports continue to be strong, Brazil's soybean production is slightly reduced, and the expected dry weather in Argentina also supports the strong market trend. Attention should be paid to whether the reserve release announcement will be made this week [1]. Oils and Fats - According to the USDA's crushing monthly report, the soybean crushing volume in the US in January 2026 was 227.86 million bushels (equivalent to 6.836 million short tons), a 0.87% decrease from 229.86 million bushels in December and a 7.20% increase from 212.55 million bushels in January 2025, which is also the highest value in January in history. The US soybean oil inventory on January 31, 2026 was 2.432 billion pounds, an 11.56% increase from 2.180 billion pounds in December [2]. - Due to the escalating war between the US/Israel and Iran, international crude oil futures have risen sharply for three consecutive trading days. Coupled with the strong rise of Chicago soybean oil futures, it is helpful for the early - morning performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. The decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the weakening of the ringgit exchange rate also support the price [2].