焦煤日报：情绪回落-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened high and trended lower, with prices falling during the day. After the impact of the geopolitical conflict in Iran on coal was realized, the market is expected to gradually return to a supply - demand - relaxed fundamental situation. If there is no change in the macro - sentiment, the market is expected to be under pressure. The downstream steel mills' resumption of work and production is slow, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts for coke [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical factors: US President Trump announced that the White House would provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran claimed full control of the strait. After the impact on coal was realized, the market declined [1]. - Fundamental factors: Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with the operating load increasing by 20%. After the holiday, the inventory of coking coal mines increased by 6.04 tons. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills have been destocking for two consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival. After the festival, steel mills have slightly recovered, with the molten iron output increasing by 2.79 tons. During the Two Sessions, steel mill emissions reduction may interfere with short - term operations. New real - estate stimulus policies have been introduced in many places, and the performance of the terminal market needs further attention [1]. Spot Data - Spot prices: The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal is 1040 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The closing price of the main futures contract is 1097 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shanxi Jiexiu is 173 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply data: From February 21st to February 27th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 68.24%, a month - on - month increase of 19.35 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 64.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.02 tons [4]. - Demand data: From February 21st to February 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 64.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 233.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79 tons [5].