热卷日报：两会限产提供支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求复苏-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot - rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". It is expected to continue to operate weakly in a volatile manner. The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation, but the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downward space. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether manufacturing stimulus policies are introduced during the Two Sessions and the actual implementation of production restrictions, as well as the rise in energy costs due to overseas geopolitical conflicts [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract decreased compared with the previous trading day, and it closed with a shrinking cross - shaped negative line. The intraday low was 3207 yuan, the high was 3229 yuan, and the closing price was 3212 yuan/ton. The short - term moving average fell below the 5 - day moving average, and there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The position decreased by 16,252 lots, and the trading volume was 280,903 lots [2] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [3] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 28 yuan [4] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The current production was 3.0961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 2000 tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [5] - Demand side: The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 539,600 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons. The significant year - on - year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival. The slight month - on - month decline reflected that the post - festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [5] - Inventory side: Factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 33,400 tons. Social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 169,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 134,100 tons. Total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 183,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 588,800 tons. Although the month - on - month increase was significant, the year - on - year level was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [5] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year - on - year increase to 2.34. A high inventory - to - sales ratio meant that the current inventory level was much higher than the demand digestion capacity, with a serious supply - demand mismatch, which would suppress the rebound space of hot - rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovered [6] - Policy side: Domestically, as the "14th Five - Year Plan" was about to start in 2026 and the Two Sessions were approaching, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade - in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, 2026, raising concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export - oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium - and long - term liquidity, which provided marginal support to market sentiment [6] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [7] - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [7]