2月海外月度观察：宽松节奏放缓，地缘冲击市场-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January to February 2026, the global economic resilience continued, but the easing pace of overseas central banks slowed down overall. Policy expectations and geopolitical risks continuously disturbed the market, leading to increased volatility of global major asset classes. The follow - up focus should be on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, the trend of energy prices, and the changes in the policy expectations of major central banks [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overseas Economy: Economic Prosperity Improves, and Inflation Continues the Slowing - down Trend - Global Economy: The global economic growth momentum was relatively strong. In January, the global manufacturing and service PMIs remained in the expansion range, and the manufacturing prosperity of major developed countries improved. From January to February, the Baltic Dry Index rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the year - on - year growth rate of South Korea's unadjusted exports in the first 20 days of February was 23.5%. The central banks of the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan remained on hold. The US federal government was shut down again, and the US Supreme Court ruled that some tariffs of the Trump administration were illegal. In Japan, Kōshi Kishida was elected as the new prime minister and implemented a loose fiscal policy [7][8][9]. - Developed Economies: - US: The economic prosperity improved, with significant recovery in manufacturing and continued expansion in services. The labor market showed short - term resilience, but historical data was significantly revised downward. Inflation data was lower than expected, but service inflation remained resilient. Retail sales growth was lower than expected, and existing - home sales declined significantly due to bad weather, with builders' sales expectations remaining weak [25][26][27]. - UK, Japan, and Eurozone: The UK's economic growth recovered, while the Eurozone's manufacturing and service sectors showed a divergence in prosperity. In January, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI expanded, and the service PMI declined slightly. The UK's manufacturing and service PMIs both increased. Japan's manufacturing and service PMIs also rose. In terms of inflation, inflation in the Eurozone declined, and inflation in Japan and the UK slowed down [51]. 3.2 Monetary Policy: The US, UK, Europe, and Japan Remained on Hold - Fed: In January, the Fed paused rate cuts as expected and maintained a wait - and - see stance due to inflation risks. Although there were differences among officials, there was still a possibility of rate cuts within the year. The Fed was likely to start the rate - cut window in the second half of the year [64]. - ECB: The euro strengthened, and tariff policy uncertainty increased. The ECB continued to keep rates unchanged and would make decisions based on future data. Attention should be paid to the impact of the euro's appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation prospects [66]. - BOJ: The BOJ maintained the interest rate unchanged and focused on the yen, trade policies, and imported inflation. It was expected that inflation would fall below 2% in the first half of 2026 but would rise slowly throughout the year [69]. - BOE: The BOE paused rate cuts dovishly. Given the trends of slowing growth and falling inflation, there was still room for rate cuts within the year [71]. 3.3 Financial Market: US Treasury Yields First Rose and Then Fell, the US Dollar Index Rebounded after Hitting the Bottom, and International Oil Prices Strengthened - US Bond Market: Since the beginning of the year, the trading of the US bond market was centered around domestic fundamentals, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors. Yields first rose and then fell, breaking through 4% during the session. By the end of February, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped 9BP to 3.38%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 21BP to 3.97% [2][74]. - Exchange - rate Market: The US dollar index rebounded after hitting the bottom, the yen oscillated weakly, and the euro and the pound first strengthened and then weakened, mainly following the fluctuations of the US dollar [77][78]. - International Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions dominated oil prices, and the WTI crude oil price quickly rose to $74.6 per barrel [81].