欧盟碳市场行情简报-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The global situation is becoming more uncertain, and EUA is decoupled from TTF, showing a volatile trend [2] - There are no new positive factors, while there are negative factors such as the revised nuclear strategy announced by Macron and the energy crisis caused by the Iran conflict [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - Auction: The EUA auction price on March 2, 2026, was 68.42 euros/ton, a decrease of 2.62%, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.63. The CBAM certificate price was 69.51 euros/ton, and the auction volume was 2712500 tons, with an auction revenue of 185.59 million euros [2][4] - Futures: The EUA futures settlement price on March 2, 2026, was 70.57 euros/ton, an increase of 0.40%, and the trading volume was 56800 lots, an increase of 2.77 lots. The futures position was 343900 lots [5] - Spot: The EUA spot settlement price on March 2, 2026, was 69.22 euros/ton, an increase of 0.42%, and the trading volume was 3248 lots, an increase of 24.35 lots [5] Strategy Core Logic - Positive Factors: None [2] - Negative Factors: Macron announced a revised nuclear strategy and opened deterrence exercises to European allies, increasing global uncertainty; the Iran conflict compressed natural gas supply, causing TTF to soar by 45% and triggering an energy crisis, which is negative for European industrial demand [2]