瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market of rebar will continue to fluctuate within a range. With the convening of the Two Sessions, some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and geopolitical tensions continue to push up oil prices, which supports commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,071.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume is 1,839,511 lots, down 42,377 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 25,724 lots, up 7,572 lots; the spread between RB5 - 10 contracts is - 29 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 22,828 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 141 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) is 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,410.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 750.00 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) is 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.9631 million tons, up 1.5398 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 625,900 tons, up 72,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 6.7506 million tons, down 135,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 2.1946 million tons, up 452,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 87.48%, up 1.05% [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.651 million tons, down 52,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 36.19%, down 1.16%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.3284 million tons, up 117,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 5.6776 million tons, up 727,900 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 11.46%, down 10.42%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products is 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 17.20%, down 1.30%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 2.20%, down 1.10%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 659.89 million square meters, down 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58.77 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing is 40.236 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2]. Industry News - From February 23rd to March 1st, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival, and the cumulative transaction area since this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. As of February 28th, 16 cities have issued 21 policies to relax the housing market, including Shanghai's "Seven Measures", which lower the entry threshold for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, expand the home - purchase eligibility of the population with residence permits, and moderately relax the purchase restrictions within the outer ring [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]