——2026年3月4日利率债观察：如何科学评价春节月的PMI?

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, a 0.3 percentage point decline from the previous month, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday. Averaging the January and February values can mitigate the impact of the holiday. The average of the manufacturing PMI in January and February 2026 was 49.15%, 0.15 percentage points higher than the February value [1][9]. - The traditional method of judging based on whether the PMI exceeds 50% has limited investment - guiding significance as the manufacturing PMI has been mostly below 50% in recent years. Comparing the current value with the previous one can sensitively perceive the latest data. Using the average of the past two or three months as a benchmark can avoid the "noise" caused by rapid fluctuations [2][11]. - Comparing with historical quantiles is also a valid evaluation method. The average of the manufacturing PMI in January and February 2026 was slightly lower than the 1/4 quantile and the median from September 2024 to December 2025. This method can also be extended to non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indices [3][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to scientifically evaluate the PMI during the "Spring Festival month"? - Manufacturing PMI: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The average of January and February was 49.15%. The traditional method of judging by the 50% threshold has limited investment guidance. Comparing with the previous value can sense the latest data, and using the average of the past two or three months can avoid "noise". The 2026 January - February average was lower than the 2025 December value, and also lower than the averages of November - December 2025 and October - December 2025. It was also slightly lower than the 1/4 quantile and median from September 2024 to December 2025 [1][2][14]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: The non - manufacturing procurement manager survey index system includes 10 classification indices, and the business activity index is commonly used to reflect the overall non - manufacturing economic change. The average of the non - manufacturing business activity index in January and February 2026 was 49.45%, lower than the 1/4 quantile (50.08%) and median (50.25%) from September 2024 to December 2025. The average of the construction business activity index in the same period was 48.50%, lower than the corresponding 1/4 quantile (49.68%) and median (50.85%) [15]. - Comprehensive PMI Output Index: It reflects the overall output change of the whole industry. The average of the comprehensive PMI output index in 2026 was 49.65%, lower than the 1/4 quantile (50.35%) and median (50.60%) from September 2024 to December 2025 [21].