瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract was consolidating with a reduction in positions. The macro - situation involves the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which may affect steel exports. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is stable, with a capacity utilization rate around 79%. Terminal demand has recovered after the holiday, but inventory continues to increase. With the Two Sessions held, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut blast furnace production by 30% and sintering by 30% - 50%, and some have blast furnace maintenance plans. Technically, for the HC2605 contract, the 1 - hour MACD shows DIFF and DEA running below the 0 - axis with a stable red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,212 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 1,435,635 lots, down 16,252 lots; the net holding of the top 20 in the HC contract is 60,441 lots, up 3,414 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 444,294 tons, up 10,596 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 141 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou is 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The HC main contract basis is 38 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 750 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.9631 million tons, up 1.5398 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 625,900 tons, up 72,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 6.7506 million tons, down 135,200 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 2.1946 million tons, up 452,400 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 87.48%, up 1.05%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 3.0961 million tons, down 2,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 79.09%, down 0.05%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 947,800 tons, up 14,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.5737 million tons, up 169,000 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 6.818 million tons, down 169,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 2.4499 million vehicles, down 846,100 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 2.3465 million vehicles, down 925,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 380,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Recently, Hebei, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, Fujian, Shanghai, Guizhou, Tianjin, and Shanxi released the list of key construction projects in 2026, including 120 projects related to the iron and steel industry. Currently, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut blast furnace production by 30% and sintering by 30% - 50%, and some have blast furnace maintenance plans with a duration of 5 - 7 days. It is expected that the blast furnace hot metal in the Tangshan market will decline in early March and recover in mid - March, with a relatively limited overall impact [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]