国内观察2026年2月PMI：淡季回落，关注两会定调

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.3% in January[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.5%, compared to 49.4% in January[2] - The seasonal decline in manufacturing PMI is less severe compared to similar late Spring Festival years since 2015, with a smaller drop of -0.3 percentage points[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Insights - The production index fell to 49.6%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points, but remains slightly stronger than the seasonal average decline of -1.55 percentage points[2] - New orders index decreased to 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points, aligning closely with the seasonal average decline of -0.55 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.0%, with a decline of 2.8 percentage points, slightly weaker than the seasonal average of -0.68 percentage points[2] Group 3: Price Index and Sector Performance - The main raw material purchase price index was 54.8%, down 1.3 percentage points, while the factory price index remained stable at 50.6%[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points, both remaining above the growth line[2] - Consumer goods PMI showed a positive trend, increasing to 48.3%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating improved downstream demand[2] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector and Construction - The non-manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, outperforming the seasonal average decline of -0.25 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points, but still stronger than the seasonal average decline of -2.28 percentage points[2] - The construction activity expectation index remained above the growth line at 50.9%, indicating potential stabilization in investment[2]