肉奶周期共振，盈利改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the industry, indicating a potential upward trend in the market over the next six months [56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the raw milk price has been at a low point, with a potential turning point in supply and demand expected soon. The average price of fresh milk as of February 26, 2026, was 3.03 yuan/kg, down 1.9% year-on-year, and has been below the cost line for an extended period [7][54]. - The beef cattle price is entering an upward cycle, with significant price increases expected due to supply constraints and rising demand for quality protein as GDP per capita increases [33][54]. - The report emphasizes the resonance between the meat and milk cycles, suggesting that profitability in the industry is likely to improve as conditions stabilize [54]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Raw Milk Price and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend for over four years, returning to levels seen in 2010. The average price has fluctuated between 3.02 and 3.04 yuan/kg since the second half of 2025, indicating prolonged industry losses [7][54]. - The report notes a significant reduction in dairy cow inventory, with an expected decrease of approximately 300,000 heads in 2024 and 250,000 to 300,000 heads in 2025, leading to a cumulative reduction of about 9% over two years [16]. Section 2: Beef Cattle Price Trends - The beef cattle industry has faced severe losses, but prices are rebounding, with the average price of fattened bulls at 25.74 yuan/kg as of February 28, 2026, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase [33]. - The report anticipates that beef prices will continue to rise until 2027, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand for beef in the domestic market [54]. Section 3: Opportunities in Dairy Processing - The demand for deep-processed dairy products is on the rise, with liquid milk accounting for 92.7% of total dairy product output. The report highlights a significant growth opportunity in the deep processing sector, where the current processing rate is below 10% compared to over 40% in developed markets [17][54]. - The B-end dairy product market is expanding rapidly, with projected demand for products like cream and butter increasing significantly by 2028, indicating a substantial market opportunity for domestic dairy companies [25][54]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Yili and Mengniu, as well as companies involved in low-temperature dairy products, which are expected to see rapid growth [54]. - It also recommends monitoring top livestock companies like Modern Dairy and Yuanran Dairy, which are likely to benefit from the improving profitability outlook in the beef and dairy sectors [54].