2.4%的长信用如何看？

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ultra - long credit bond market ended its pre - holiday strong performance this week, facing pressure and a callback. The future trend of the ultra - long credit bond market depends on the tightness of the capital market, the change of risk appetite, and the stability of policy expectations during the Two Sessions [2][5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The yield of ultra - long credit bonds has undergone a callback. From February 24 to 27, 2026, the ultra - long credit bond market ended its pre - holiday strong performance and showed a pressured and callback trend. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.5% - 2.6% increased to 152 compared with last week [2][13]. 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds is at a low level. In the past two weeks, the supply of new ultra - long credit bonds has remained low, with only the ultra - Great Wall Investment Bonds having incremental issuance. The interest rate of new ultra - Great Wall Investment Bonds fluctuated down to 2.57% in the latest week, and the subscription sentiment increased marginally. According to historical patterns, March to April will be the peak period for credit bond issuance, and attention can be paid to the selection space brought by the increased supply of long - term bonds [3][23]. 3.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The price of ultra - long bonds fluctuated slightly. This week, the ultra - long credit bond market experienced a callback due to multiple pressures on the basis of the vulnerability accumulated in the previous extreme market. The full - price indices of ChinaBond AA + credit bonds with maturities of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years both declined by more than 0.06%, but the amplitude was generally smaller than that of government bonds and secondary capital bonds of the same maturity [4][31]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds remained weak. In the first week after the holiday, the trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds significantly declined. The number of transactions of general credit bonds with maturities over 7 years dropped to 226, and the number of transactions of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds fell to the bottom 30% in the past two years. Since the spread of ultra - long credit bonds has been compressed to a relatively low level (the spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year government bonds is only 11bp), the price protection is insufficient, making the market extremely sensitive to marginal negative news and leading to a decline in trading activity after the holiday [4][33]. - The low - valuation transaction amplitude of ultra - long credit bonds significantly converged this week. The proportion of TKN (Take - No - Offer) in 7 - 10 - year general credit bonds dropped sharply from 83.8% before the holiday to 53.5%, indicating a significant decline in the market's willingness to chase long - term bonds [4][39]. - In terms of investor structure, the concentrated profit - taking of trading desks such as public funds was the direct cause of the callback of ultra - long credit bonds. The unexpected implementation of the "Shanghai Seven - Point" real - estate new policy and the increasing policy uncertainty before the Two Sessions suppressed their bullish sentiment. Insurance funds, traditionally the main investors in ultra - long bonds, did not show a strong willingness to take over during this adjustment [4][43]. - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and government bonds of similar maturities widened this week. The net price of Chengtong Holdings' ultra - long bonds with maturities over 10 years basically returned to the level at the end of January [5][47].