美国2月ISM非制造业PMI超预期

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The latest US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February significantly exceeded expectations, indicating short - term economic resilience in the US, increased market risk appetite, and a weakening US dollar index [14][17][18]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, showing a weakening economy, and there were issues such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream [2][28]. - In the commodity market, prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and policy expectations, with different trends and outlooks [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in February was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. The US Senate failed to stop the president from using force, and the US Treasury Secretary may raise the universal tariff to 15% this week [10][11][12]. - Gold prices rebounded slightly but failed to recover the previous day's decline. The US economic data was better than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed to the second half of the year. The short - term monetary policy entered a wait - and - see stage, and the gold price lacked continuous upward momentum. The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be weak and volatile, with silver weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February was 56.1, exceeding the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 53.8. The new order index was 58.6, higher than the previous value of 53.1. The US Treasury Secretary said the universal tariff might be raised to 15% this week, and the White House said the US military had attacked over 2,000 Iranian targets [14][15][16]. - The US economy shows short - term resilience, market risk appetite rises, and the US dollar index weakens. The US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [17][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3% month - on - month decrease. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a 0.1% increase, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The schedule of the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress's centralized interview activities was announced [20][21]. - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower with a gap. The current dominant factor is the risk - aversion sentiment, and the stocks of the "Three Barrels of Oil" fluctuated significantly due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Attention should be paid to domestic policy efforts during the Two Sessions, and the national team may take measures to stabilize the market. It is recommended to operate the stock index long - strategy with a low position [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ISM services PMI in February rose to 56.1, the strongest performance since mid - 2022. New orders grew strongly, the employment market improved, and the overall economic momentum increased significantly. The price pressure in the service industry eased. The White House said sending US ground troops to Iran was not currently in the plan, and a Fed governor said the Middle East situation had not changed the judgment on interest rate cuts [23][24][25]. - US economic data remained resilient, ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the service industry ISM showed an improvement in economic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite. The US stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the high uncertainty of the short - term geopolitical conflict [26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, lower than the expected 49.1 and the previous value of 49.3. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 49.4. The central bank conducted a 40.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 36.9 billion yuan on the day [28][29]. - The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut has increased, and the short - end varieties performed strongly. Although the weakening of the PMI is affected by seasonal factors, there are also problems such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream. The bond market is expected to strengthen slightly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of imported inflation [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 4, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The phenomenon of shipping losses still exists, and traders are cautious in shipping. The demand side has no obvious signal of volume increase, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, with frequent price - pressing and poor transaction conditions [31]. - Overseas coal prices have risen significantly due to the Middle East conflict, but the domestic market is calm, and the port trading is light. The domestic coal price is expected to be supported, but whether there is more upward elasticity needs to be observed [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company, Akora Resources, obtained a new mining license for its iron ore project in Madagascar [33]. - Iron ore prices continue to fluctuate. Under the pressure of terminal finished product inventory and orders, it is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection restrictions in some areas will relieve the pressure on finished products to some extent. The terminal is expected to resume production in mid - March, but the overall terminal orders are average. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [33]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Real estate regulations in many places have led to a significant increase in the consultation and visit volume. The steel price continues to fluctuate, with obvious fundamental suppression and strong cost - side support. Without unexpected policies, the steel price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [34]. - It is recommended to adopt a volatile thinking and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [35]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In February, the actual arrival of imported soybeans in the domestic market was about 4.602 million tons. The international market has not changed much, and the CBOT soybeans are still strong due to the positive US biofuel policy. The domestic soybean meal is strongly volatile under cost support, but the supply and demand situation does not support continuous price increases [36]. - It is recommended to view the soybean meal trend with a volatile thinking and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement, Brazil's harvest and shipment, and domestic reserve and customs policies [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to face a longer and more severe drought this year, and the MPOA estimates that the palm oil production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16.24% month - on - month [37]. - The oil market is volatile. The POGO spread has dropped to a two - year low, and the domestic biodiesel demand is expected to be supported. If the drought intensifies in the second half of the year and the production reduction caused by the nationalization of Indonesian plantations is realized, the palm oil price has upward potential. In the short term, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction in February and the supply - demand data in March [38]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the data in February and the progress of the geopolitical conflict. If the diesel price remains high, the oil market price is expected to rise [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 743,000 tons, an increase of 124,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 300,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; and the imported barley was 639,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41]. - The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of corn is expected to gradually increase, and the low inventory in ports supports the price. The downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are also risks such as the concentrated sale of corn in the Northeast and the potential impact of wheat substitution. In the short term, it is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [41][42]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugar production in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season was 796,000 tons, slightly higher than expected. In Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have completed the crushing process, and the progress is still slow. India may face a sugar supply shortage later this year, and the export to the Gulf market may decrease due to the Iran situation [43][44][45]. - The ICE raw sugar futures are fluctuating around 14 cents. The US - Iran conflict may have a limited impact on the sugar market. The domestic sugar market is in the peak production period, and the sales pressure is expected to increase. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level oscillation [46][47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium iron phosphate project with an investment of over 3 billion yuan was put into production. In February, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 26,849 tons, with 22,380 tons exported to China. There are rumors of mine shutdowns in Yichun, and Zimbabwe has officially approved a ban on the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is still supported, but if the power demand recovery is less than expected, there may be order cuts in the mid - stream. It is recommended to consider gradually trying long positions if the price continues to fall [51][52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $19.21 per ton. The zinc price is restricted by both upward and downward factors. The LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 95,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased. The zinc production in March is expected to increase, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure [53]. - It is recommended to wait and see from a unilateral perspective and adopt a medium - term positive arbitrage strategy from an internal - external perspective [54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $49.27 per ton. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to the cost support of recycled lead, but it is also affected by the macro - situation. The social inventory of lead is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [55][56]. - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from a monthly spread perspective [56]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale Base Metals is accelerating its IPO preparation. In February, Chile's copper exports to China decreased. The Middle East situation and the expected policy changes during the Two Sessions will affect the copper price. The domestic and overseas inventory situations also have an impact on the price [57][58]. - It is recommended to buy on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from an arbitrage perspective [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $130 per ton. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease in the short term but may face constraints in the long term. The domestic smelting profit is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up [60][61][62]. - In the short term, the tin price is under pressure from the macro - situation and the high inventory. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation and the macro - situation [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Saudi Aramco plans to expand exports from Yanbu Port. The oil price increase has slowed down. The market is concerned about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Saudi Aramco can maintain a high loading volume at Yanbu Port, it will partially solve the problem of stagnant oil exports, but the Houthi rebels' interference still exists [64]. - The short - term oil price will remain highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the situation changes [64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - The current propane inventory is 73.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.8 million barrels from the previous week and 24.7 million barrels from the same period last year. The supply and demand of LPG have changed, and the market is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. - Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has increased. The international oil price has risen due to the geopolitical conflict, driving up the asphalt price. The supply of asphalt is expected to remain low, and the price has an upward risk [66][67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PX price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors. The PTA basis has strengthened, and the PX structure has also strengthened. The short - term PTA/PX prices are expected to continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation [68][70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 77,900 tons to 1.0981 million tons on March 4, 2026. The international urea price is strong, and the domestic supply is abundant, while the demand is also increasing. The market is optimistic about the spring plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast [72][73]. - It is recommended to stop profit on long positions and wait for a better entry point [74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From February 25 to March 4, the inventory of styrene in the East China main port increased. There are news of upstream device load reduction, and if the war continues until the end of April, the styrene inventory may bottom out. The overall trend is bullish, but attention should be paid to the escalation of the conflict and the spread of credit risks [75][76][77]. 2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - There are no Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the war risk level has reached its peak. The freight forwarders face high war surcharges and legal risks. The spot price of the European line has shown signs of differentiation, and the supply pressure will increase in the future. The EC2404 contract has a premium over the spot price, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on high prices [78][79][80].