国新国证期货早报-20260305

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 4, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.75% to 13917.75, and the ChiNext Index declined 1.41% to 3164.37. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2388.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 769.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4602.62, down 53.27 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted and closed at 1682.2, up 11.5. Coke producers' profitability has improved, leading to increased production. Steel mills' hot metal production is rising, supporting coke demand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and closed at 1119.7 yuan, down 1.5. Mine production is gradually recovering, but safety inspections during the important meeting have affected the resumption of production. Mongolian coal imports have returned to normal, and demand from coke producers is increasing [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - Zhengzhou Sugar: Affected by the decline in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated slightly lower on Wednesday. The ICE 3 - month raw sugar futures contract settled at 14.3 cents per pound, with a delivery volume of 15,901 lots (equivalent to 808,000 tons) [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai Rubber: Due to the rise in crude oil prices and technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, bottomed out, and rebounded, closing slightly lower. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association predicts that the total tire shipments in 2026 will increase by 0.7% to 338.9 million [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International Market: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1166.25 cents per bushel, down 0.45%. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slower than usual, and the expected output is 178 million tons, lower than the previous forecast. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 16.1 million tons [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2829 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 150,500 tons to 710,400 tons last week. The increase in import costs provides support for soybean meal prices [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,130 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The supply of suitable - weight pigs is abundant, and the demand for fat pigs is weak. The demand for pork is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures' upward trend slowed down, and the price rose and then fell. The main contract P2605 closed at 9002, up 0.09%. Malaysia's palm oil production in February is estimated to have decreased by 16.24% [5]. 2.7 Copper - Shanghai Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 100,530, reached a high of 102,400, a low of 100,200, and closed at 101,660. The global copper inventory of the three major exchanges has reached a new high since 2003, and the domestic social inventory has increased by 50.4%. The strengthening of the US dollar and profit - taking have put pressure on copper prices, but the shortage of raw materials and long - term demand support copper prices [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Zhengzhou Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,250 yuan/ton at night on Wednesday. The cotton inventory increased by 8 lots. Spinning mills are cautious about purchasing raw cotton [6]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 800, reached a low of 796.5, a high of 802, and closed at 802, with an increase of 377 lots. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong remained unchanged at 770 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 790 yuan/cubic meter [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed up 0.4% at 752 yuan. The iron ore shipments are increasing, the arrivals are decreasing, and the port inventory is at a historical high. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt 2604 closed up 2.35% at 3660 yuan. Some refineries plan to resume production, increasing supply and inventory pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.12 Steel - The rb2605 contract closed at 3071 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3212 yuan/ton. The steel market trading volume is low, and the demand is gradually picking up. Some Tangshan steel mills plan to cut production by 30%, while independent electric arc furnace steel mills are resuming production. The steel price may continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The ao2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton. The post - holiday consumption sentiment is weak, and the market trading is poor [6]. 2.14 Aluminum - The al2604 contract closed at 24,795 yuan/ton. The domestic market is waiting for policy guidance. The supply is stable, the social inventory is increasing, and the demand is under pressure [6].