钢材,铁矿石：黑色建材日报2026-03-05-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. In the short term, inventory digestion and demand verification remain the core contradictions. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to reverse their trend and will probably continue to fluctuate weakly within a range [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be shorted in the short term [9][15]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3071 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract's open interest decreased by 42377 lots to 1.8395 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged at 3120 yuan/ton and 3190 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3212 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 10596 tons to 443394 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 16252 lots to 1.4356 million lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged at 3240 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil production is basically the same as before the holiday. The post - holiday apparent demand has recovered quickly, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking rhythm and sustainability. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The production and sales recovery rhythm has not fully recovered, and the inventory accumulation speed is relatively fast, but it is still within a controllable range [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 752.00 yuan/ton, down 0.20% (- 1.50). The open interest decreased by 7288 lots to 525600 lots. The weighted open interest was 940200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.75% [5]. - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Important Meeting from March 4th to March 11th, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction controls and reduce blast furnace loads by no less than 30% [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments continued to increase, and shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot - metal production increased to 2.3328 million tons. Some blast furnaces were restarted as planned before the Spring Festival, and most of the maintenance started in late February. The steel mill profitability rate increased slightly. During the important meeting, hot - metal production is expected to be temporarily affected. In terms of inventory, port inventory has started to accumulate again, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has dropped to a low level [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 4th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.03% to close at 6120 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 30 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 0.55% to close at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 282 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, the rise of ferroalloys was mainly affected by rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of an ecological export tariff on manganese ore (the ecological export tariff rumor was proven false), which stimulated speculative enthusiasm. In addition, rumors of energy - consumption monitoring, dual - control of energy consumption, and "anti - involution" near the "Two Sessions" also led to market expectations and speculation [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with marginal improvement due to some factory maintenance and production conversion [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 4th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) fell 2.66% to close at 1097.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1504.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 215.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 1.30% to close at 1672.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 53.5 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated weakly. After the pre - holiday restocking by downstream steel mills and coking plants ended, the downstream will enter the active de - stocking stage until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines gradually resume production after the holiday, and March is usually the peak production month of coal. For coke, the downstream also enters the active de - stocking stage, and the weakening price of coking coal reduces the lower - bound support [14]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may oscillate and reduce volatility. The black sector is weak, and coking coal and coke may face short - term downward pressure. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, up 3.78% (+ 310). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 46920 lots to 414499 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton [17]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 42200 yuan/ton, down 3.43% (- 1500). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 3274 lots to 59650 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material decreased [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market was affected by rumors of rising purchased - electricity costs of a large factory in Xinjiang, causing the price to rise significantly. After the holiday, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased, and production is expected to rise slightly in March. The production in Southwest China has limited short - term growth. The demand for polysilicon and silicone is expected to improve marginally. Overall, industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand growth, and the price may fluctuate [18]. - In March, the production schedule of polysilicon is expected to increase, but the factory inventory remains high, and the destocking is limited. The price of silicon wafers is low, and the feedback to the silicon - material sector is poor. The average spot transaction price of polysilicon has declined. The futures price of polysilicon is expected to continue to be under pressure [20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1054 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 1.05% (+ 11). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 20.656 million boxes (+ 37.32%) to 76.008 million boxes on February 26th. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 6501 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 2742 lots [22]. - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1218 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 2.53% (+ 30). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 306400 tons (+ 37.32%) to 1.8944 million tons on February 26th. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32796 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 27583 lots [24]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are rumors that four glass production lines with a total capacity of 2800 tons will undergo cold - repair this month, leading to a small market rebound. The demand release of downstream processing plants is slow, and traders are mostly on the sidelines. The industry inventory has increased significantly, and the price increase resistance is large. The glass market is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1100 yuan/ton [23]. - There are rumors that a large enterprise plans to overhaul its soda - ash production line, increasing the expectation of supply reduction. The spot market is still in a wait - and - see state, and the demand release is slow. The soda - ash market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1240 yuan/ton [25].