Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. With the supply gap from Iran still existing, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the mid - term layout is the main operation idea, and the oil price is near the upper limit of the key range [3]. - For methanol, it has fully incorporated the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, so it is recommended to take profits at high prices [6]. - For urea, despite the positive downstream demand expectations, in the context of both supply and demand being strong, the marginal impact is mostly about quotas. With high prices and limited quota - related positive factors, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - For rubber, the market is driven by macro and capital factors. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for hedging [11][14]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor, with strong supply and weak domestic demand. The short - term price rebounds due to the influence of crude oil costs [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - position opportunities [19]. - For polyethylene, although the price has risen, there is still room for valuation to decline. The supply pressure has eased and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24]. - For PX, it is in a short - term inventory - building pattern, which will turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long at low prices in the mid - term [26]. - For PTA, observe the subsequent maintenance situation. In the mid - term, follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28]. - For ethylene glycol, there is a high inventory - building pressure in the mid - term, but there is an expected reduction in imports due to the tense situation in Iran. It is recommended to go long at low prices [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE main crude oil futures rose 78.70 yuan/barrel, or 13.99%, to 641.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 477.00 yuan/ton, or 13.98%, to 3888.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 430.00 yuan/ton, or 10.90%, to 4376.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Strategy Suggestions: Start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the price spread of different oil types in North and South Africa before the mid - year production increase in Libya; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent inter - regional spread [4]. Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 65 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 7.5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 60 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 15 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 27.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 75.00 yuan/ton to 2553 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 295 yuan [6]. - Strategy Suggestions: Take profits at high prices as it has fully incorporated the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [6]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Hubei increased by 10 yuan/ton and in the Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 28 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1822 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Suggestions: Short at high prices as the fundamental outlook is bearish due to limited quota - related positives and high prices [9]. Rubber - Market Information: The stock market and commodities generally declined, and rubber tumbled. The overall market changed rapidly, driven by macro and capital factors. As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, up 18.78 percentage points from last week but down 36.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, up 22.04 percentage points from last week but down 43.79 percentage points from the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7 tons or 5.4%. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the festival. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 15650 (- 250) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2020 (- 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 2020 (- 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10900 (+ 600) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12800 (+ 350) yuan [11][12][13]. - Strategy Suggestions: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for hedging [14]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 71 yuan to 4939 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (+ 80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 235 (+ 24) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (- 9) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2100 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 780 (+ 30) dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 634 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous month; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, and the ethylene method was 83.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a month - on - month increase of 17.1%. The in - plant inventory was 50.4 tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 tons (+ 1) [16]. - Strategy Suggestions: The supply - demand situation is poor, with strong supply and weak domestic demand. The short - term price rebounds due to the influence of crude oil costs [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Information: The cost of East China pure benzene was 6820 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6863 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 43 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 8250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 8213 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; the basis was 37 yuan/ton, weakening by 32 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 208 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 281.3 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, up 3.16%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 tons, an increase of 1.75 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 30.45%, up 2.72%; the PS operating rate was 49.40%, down 0.30%, the EPS operating rate was 12.18%, up 12.18%, and the ABS operating rate was 70.70%, up 1.80% [18]. - Strategy Suggestions: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - position opportunities [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 7355 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7300 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton, the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, strengthening by 70 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 57.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.60 tons, and the inventory of traders was 4.69 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 68 yuan/ton [21]. - Strategy Suggestions: Although the price has risen, there is still room for valuation to decline. The supply pressure has eased and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 7506 yuan/ton, up 283 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7400 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton, the basis was - 106 yuan/ton, weakening by 8 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 73.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.87 tons, the inventory of traders was 24.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3 tons, and the port inventory was 8.86 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, a month - on - month increase of 8.49%. The LL - PP spread was - 151 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 128 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 280 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 226 yuan/ton [23]. - Strategy Suggestions: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 148 yuan to 7984 yuan, PX CFR rose 8 dollars to 1027 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 36), and the 5 - 7 spread was 100 yuan (+ 50). The PX operating rate in China was 92.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the Asian operating rate was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. A 2.5 - million - ton plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and the maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait was restarted, and a 770,000 - ton plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 415,000 tons of PX to China in February, a year - on - year increase of 7,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 4.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 282 dollars (- 2), South Korea's PX - MX was 140 dollars (- 3), and the naphtha cracking spread was 136 dollars (- 7) [25]. - Strategy Suggestions: It is in a short - term inventory - building pattern, which will turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long at low prices in the mid - term [26]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 56 yuan to 5608 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 5605 yuan, the basis was - 46 yuan (+ 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 98 yuan (+ 56). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. The downstream operating rate was 79.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The terminal texturing operating rate increased by 5% to 10%, and the loom operating rate increased by 17% to 17%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 2.597 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 35 yuan to 237 yuan, and the on - disk processing fee rose 17 yuan to 388 yuan [27]. - Strategy Suggestions: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation. In the mid - term, follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 100 yuan to 4025 yuan, the East China spot price rose 152 yuan to 4046 yuan, the basis was - 52 yuan (+ 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 7 yuan (+ 41). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 2%, among which the synthetic gas - based method was 84%, a month - on - month increase of 4.1%, and the ethylene - based method operating rate was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The downstream operating rate was 79.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The import arrival forecast was 108,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on March 3 was 490 tons. The port inventory was 1.002 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1803 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 827 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was - 273 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 750 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal rebounded to 670 yuan [30][31]. - Strategy Suggestions: There is a high inventory - building pressure in the mid - term, but there is an expected reduction in imports due to the tense situation in Iran. It is recommended to go long at low prices [32].
能源化工日报-20260305
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-05 01:16