地缘扰动不断，成本波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side is strongly supported due to the convening of the Two Sessions, geopolitical disturbances, rising energy valuations, and increasing shipping costs. Iron ore and alloy prices are strong, and steel prices are firm. However, real - world demand lacks highlights, coking coal demand release is limited, the first round of coke price cuts has begun, and the fundamentals of glass and soda ash still face pressure, with the futures market struggling to rise [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly and remain at a high level. The current arrival at ports is low but is expected to rebound. There are still hurricane disturbances in Australia. The supply of scrap steel is in a seasonal recovery stage [4][9]. - Demand: The resumption and maintenance of blast furnaces are staggered, and the iron - water output has increased significantly. The profitability of steel mills has slightly recovered, and the rigid demand has marginally increased. During the Two Sessions, production in some regions will be restricted, affecting the recovery rhythm of iron - water. The demand for scrap steel is also in a seasonal recovery stage [4][9]. - Inventory: Iron ore port inventory has increased, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel at steel mills has also decreased, and some steel mills have rigid restocking needs [4][9][11]. - Outlook: Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. Scrap steel prices may oscillate within a narrow range [4][10][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke - Supply: Coking profits are stable, but during the Two Sessions, some coke oven production capacity may be restricted, and supply may decrease slightly [13]. - Demand: The resumption and maintenance of steel - mill blast furnaces coexist, and the overall number of resumed furnaces is more than that of maintained ones. However, production restrictions during the Two Sessions may drag down the recovery of iron - water, but there is still rigid demand support [13]. - Inventory: Before the festival, inventory replenishment at all links was basically in place. During the festival, steel mills consumed their own inventory, and coke enterprises accumulated inventory. With the recovery of logistics, the inventory pressure is acceptable [13]. - Outlook: In the long term, both supply and demand of coke are expected to increase slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. After the first - round price cut, the possibility of further cuts is small, and the futures market will follow the cost of coking coal [14]. - Coking Coal - Supply: Most domestic coal mines have resumed production, and the import of Mongolian coal has returned to normal, with overall imports remaining high [15]. - Demand: Coke production has increased slightly. Before the festival, mid - and downstream inventory replenishment was basically completed. During the Spring Festival, there was little procurement, and most enterprises consumed in - house inventory. With the accelerated resumption of coal - mine production, the upstream has slightly accumulated inventory [15]. - Outlook: After the Spring Festival, the resumption speed of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal face pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. Spot prices are expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to capital sentiment [15]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Silicon - Cost: The price of manganese ore is strong, and the cost of manganese silicon is gradually rising [18]. - Demand: Steel production is increasing, but the resumption rhythm of some steel mills may be affected during major meetings. Steel mills will first digest their previous raw - material inventory, and the restocking demand recovers slowly [18]. - Supply: The start - up of southern manufacturers remains low, but the production control in the north is limited, and with the continuous release of new production capacity, market inventory may further accumulate [18]. - Outlook: The market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures market. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a callback [18]. - Silicon Iron - Cost: There is an expectation of rising energy prices, and the cost support for silicon iron is expected to strengthen [19]. - Demand: Steel production is increasing, but the resumption rhythm of some steel mills may be affected during major meetings. Steel mills will first digest their previous raw - material inventory, and the restocking demand recovers slowly. The demand for steel - making has limited support for silicon - iron prices. The production of magnesium metal remains high, and the price of magnesium ingots is firm [19]. - Supply: The daily output of silicon iron is still at a low level, and the upstream inventory pressure is limited. However, with the strengthening of the futures market and the increasing steel production, manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [19]. - Outlook: The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions and insufficient driving forces. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of a high - level callback when the futures valuation quickly recovers above the cost line [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Supply: The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are in large - scale losses. In the long term, the daily melting volume should show a downward trend [16]. - Demand: After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has not recovered, and real demand needs to be verified after the Lantern Festival. The mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability [16]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate. There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventory will always suppress prices [16]. - Soda Ash - Supply: The daily output increased yesterday, and supply remains high in the short term [16]. - Demand: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There is an expectation of a decline in glass daily melting volume, corresponding to a weakening of heavy - soda ash demand. The downstream procurement of light - soda ash has not changed significantly [16]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [16]. 3.5 Steel - Supply: After the festival, with the gradual resumption of electric - arc furnaces, the output of rebar is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply pressure of steel will gradually increase [9]. - Demand: In the off - season and affected by the holiday, the recovery of post - festival demand still takes time. Currently, the demand for building materials is at a seasonal low, and the demand for the manufacturing industry is also in the off - season. The downstream restocking willingness is low, and the overall demand is at a low level [9]. - Inventory: After the festival, steel inventory continues to accumulate, especially the inventory of rebar. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated [9]. - Outlook: Currently, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. With the convening of the Two Sessions and many geopolitical disturbances, there is still uncertainty in the macro - environment. The futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [9].