格林大华期货早盘提示：三油、两粕-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the ongoing fermentation of the US - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices remain strong, and the vegetable oil sector is also strong. It is expected that the vegetable oil will mainly show a strong trend. Existing long positions should be partially profited and reduced at high prices, and new long positions should wait for new buying points after a pull - back, and over - chasing is not recommended [1][2]. - For the double - meal sector, there is a wide supply and a tight macro - expectation. It is recommended to short the basis and go long on the futures. Retain long positions and reduce them, new orders should wait for new buying points after a pull - back, and the medium - term trend will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Vegetable Oil - On March 4, the US - Iran conflict was still fermenting, international crude oil remained strong, and the vegetable oil sector was also strong. The closing price of the main soybean oil contract Y2605 was 8370 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.24% and a daily increase in positions of 1760 lots; the closing price of the secondary main soybean oil contract Y2609 was 8340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.22% and a daily increase in positions of 6553 lots. The closing price of the main palm oil contract P2605 was 9002 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.09% and a daily decrease in positions of 9884 lots; the closing price of the secondary main palm oil contract P2609 was 9024 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.22% and a daily increase in positions of 3328 lots. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 was 9486 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.23% and a daily increase in positions of 5120 lots; the closing price of the secondary main rapeseed oil contract OI2609 was 9401 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.10% and a daily increase in positions of 6804 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Double - Meal - On March 4, the spot market was weak, the sales were sluggish, and the double - meal futures prices fell under pressure. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract M2605 was 2829 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.25% and a daily decrease in positions of 68455 lots; the closing price of the secondary main soybean meal contract M2609 was 2944 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.41% and a daily decrease in positions of 12965 lots. The closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 was 2303 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a daily decrease in positions of 7478 lots; the closing price of the secondary main rapeseed meal contract RM2609 was 2356 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.55% and a daily increase in positions of 18773 lots [2]. 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Vegetable Oil - On Wednesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures rose by more than 1.75%. Due to the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory actions, many oil and gas facilities in the region were forced to shut down, and shipping in the key Strait of Hormuz was blocked. The April crude oil futures contract rose by 0.01 US dollars, with a settlement price of 74.66 US dollars per barrel [1]. - The White House announced a temporary trade agreement framework reached between the US and India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, various food and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March [1]. - The US government plans to require large refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending exemption quota, which further strengthens the market expectation that the upcoming US biofuel policy will boost the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil [1]. - According to data from the Southern Palm Oil Manufacturers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), from February 1 - 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 16.25% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreased by 17.78% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) increased by 0.1% month - on - month [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - According to data released by the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in February was 1,149,063 tons, a decrease of 21.5% compared with the export volume of 1,463,069 tons in January. Among them, the export volume to China was 58,000 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons compared with 40,100 tons in the previous month [1]. - As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0236 million tons, an increase of 44,200 tons week - on - week, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.93%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0151 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.22%; the edible palm oil inventory was 714,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.49%, and a year - on - year increase of 96.07%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 294,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 61.41% [1]. 3.2.2 Double - Meal - As of last Thursday (February 26), the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 39%, compared with 30% last week and 50% in the same period last year. Continuous rainfall has hindered the harvest work, and the current harvest progress is the lowest since the 2020/21 season. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season has been lowered to 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared with the forecast on January 26. If the forecast becomes a reality, it will still set a historical record, an increase of 3.8% compared with 171.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) has lowered the soybean export forecast for February by 800,000 tons to 10.69 million tons, but it is still 9.9% higher than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending February 19, the net sales volume of US soybeans will be between 400,000 and 1 million tons. In contrast, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season last week was 798,200 tons, and the net sales volume in the 2026/27 season was 66,000 tons [2]. - There are market rumors that customs in South and East China will extend the inspection time by 5 days, which may be a pre - warm for the resumption of imported soybean auctions after the Spring Festival [3]. - As of the end of the 8th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8012 million tons, an increase of 151,500 tons compared with 5.6497 million tons last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 5.0671 million tons, and the five - week average was 6.2315 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 863,900 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons compared with 875,300 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the contract volume was 4.4052 million tons, an increase of 1.0906 million tons compared with 3.3146 million tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 32.90%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 222,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared with 164,000 tons last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 536,000 tons, and the five - week average was 182,400 tons. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 6,000 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month flat rate; the contract volume was 18,000 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month flat rate [3]. 3.3 Spot Market 3.3.1 Vegetable Oil - As of March 4, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 280 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 370.17 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3.2 Double - Meal - As of March 3, the spot price of soybean meal was 3113 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 19,100 tons. The basis price of soybean meal was 3115 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 9500 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 244 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2523 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2000 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Market Logic 3.4.1 Vegetable Oil - In the external market, the US - Iran conflict is fermenting, international crude oil futures prices continue to rise strongly. Due to the navigation crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices soar, the bio - diesel concept is revived, and Malaysian palm oil rises following the surrounding vegetable oils. The spot price rises with the market, and the basis quotation is stable with a downward trend. The downstream traders have completed replenishment, and the vegetable oil market has entered the traditional off - season of demand. Although the factory's operating rate increased last week, it was only about 25%, and the output of soybean oil was limited. Traders replenished their stocks, so the factory's soybean oil inventory still decreased at the end of last week. Although the Ministry of Commerce imposed an additional 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada over the weekend, due to the rapid escalation of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices are still strong. It is expected that the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures price may reach the upper track of the daily line. In the spot market, the basis quotation of far - month rapeseed oil continues to decline, and the market supply is gradually changing from tight to loose. Overall, macro - factors play a leading role, and the vegetable oil is expected to show a strong trend [2]. 3.4.2 Double - Meal - In the external market, the pressure of the Brazilian soybean market is prominent, the competitiveness of high - priced US soybeans has declined, and the US soybean price has fallen under pressure. Currently, the strong US soybean futures price, the stable Brazilian basis, and the weakening of the offshore RMB jointly support the import cost. However, due to the weak spot market, the 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. In the spot market, the near - month basis has slightly decreased. Although the oil mill's inventory has declined, the terminal demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the market trading volume is difficult to increase. Traders are looking for vehicles to execute previous contracts, and the actual trading is subject to price negotiation. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the expected increase in global freight rates caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provide risk premiums for the futures price. At the same time, the market is focusing on whether China will make additional purchases of 8 million tons of US soybeans, and this uncertainty continuously limits the downward space of the double - meal futures price. Overall, there is a wide supply and a tight macro - expectation, so it is recommended to short the basis and go long on the futures [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies 3.5.1 Vegetable Oil - For unilateral trading, existing long positions in vegetable oils should lock in profits and be reduced, and new long positions should wait for new buying points after a pull - back. The resistance level of the Y2605 contract is 8560, and the support level is 8048; the resistance level of the Y2609 contract is 8692, and the support level is 8054; the resistance level of the P2605 contract is 9418, and the support level is 8776; the resistance level of the P2609 contract is 9696, and the support level is 8710; the resistance level of the OI2605 contract is 9732, and the support level is 9212; the resistance level of the OI2609 contract is 9780, and the support level is 9180 [2]. 3.5.2 Double - Meal - Retain long positions and reduce them, new orders should wait for new buying points after a pull - back, and the medium - term trend will maintain a wide - range oscillation. The resistance level of the M2605 contract is 2900, and the support level is 2710; the resistance level of the M2607 contract is 2840, and the support level is 2680; the resistance level of the M2509 contract is 3000, and the support level is 2833; the resistance level of the RM2605 contract is 2444, and the support level is 2220; the resistance level of the RM2607 contract is 2429, and the support level is 2200; the resistance level of the RM2609 contract is 2448, and the support level is 2274 [3].