格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term methanol price shows a high - level oscillating trend due to factors such as the high inventory of domestic methanol ports, the suspension of multiple olefin plants with uncertain recovery time, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the production and transportation of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously or partially take profits, with risks related to the development of geopolitical events [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the 2605 main contract dropped by 81 yuan to 2497 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell by 40 yuan to 2465 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 64,765 lots to 458,000 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 64,195 lots to 577,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 27,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 101,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,100 tons. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The olefin operating rate is 85.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%; the methane chloride operating rate is 82.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the import average price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. The largest import volume was from Saudi Arabia, which was 604,400 tons, with an import average price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Price: The international oil price stabilized after oscillation. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose by 0.10 US dollars/barrel to 74.66 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%; the ICE Brent oil futures 05 contract was flat at 81.40 US dollars/barrel compared with the previous working day. The China INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose by 61.6 to 624 yuan/barrel, and rose by 56.1 to 680.1 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - Over the weekend, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated severely, and the domestic crude oil soared. The domestic methanol port inventory remains at a high level around 1.44 million tons. Although the import volume decreased from February to March, multiple olefin plants were shut down, and the recovery time is uncertain. Geopolitical conflicts have affected the production and transportation of Iranian methanol, and the restart of multiple Iranian methanol plants has been delayed [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously or partially take profits, with risks related to the development of geopolitical events [2]