不锈钢期货日报-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless steel market is currently in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" with a bullish sentiment on the futures market, but the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 2, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract SS2604 was 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume significantly increased to 160,089 lots, a 24.6% increase from the previous day, while the open interest continued to shrink to 67,918 lots, a 6.4% decrease from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The stainless steel spot market showed a stable and differentiated pattern on the day. The leading price of Chinese stainless steel spot was 13,631 yuan/ton. In the Wuxi market, the price range of 304 cold - rolled/2B four - foot trimmed edges was 14,520 - 15,020 yuan/ton, with some agents' quotes down 100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes slightly increased to 13,920 yuan/ton. In the Foshan market, the 304 cold - rolled quotes remained stable at 15,005 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,955 yuan/ton. Overall, spot trading was light, downstream procurement was mainly for restocking by old customers, new orders were limited, market sentiment was still cautious, and traders' quotes were mainly stable, with some regions seeing small price increases due to cost support and peak - season expectations [3]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry Level: In March, the planned production of stainless steel crude steel reached 3.6335 million tons, a significant 32.69% increase from the previous month. Among them, the planned production of the 300 series was 1.8948 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 43.24%, indicating that the production rhythm in the traditional peak season has significantly accelerated. The price of ferronickel has been continuously strengthening, with the mainstream quotes ranging from 1,080 to 1,100 yuan/nickel, and some scattered orders reaching 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/nickel, providing strong cost support for stainless steel [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: On the day, the K - line of the SS2604 contract closed positive, with a long body, a very short upper shadow, and an obvious lower shadow, indicating that the support at 14,100 yuan/ton was effective. In the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA formed a golden cross near the zero axis, and the red bars began to expand, with the momentum changing from weak to strong. The RSI was reported at 58.3, in a neutral - to - strong range without over - buying. The Bollinger Bands' opening slightly narrowed, and the price was above the middle track, indicating that the short - term trend was bullish but the volatility was converging, and the game between long and short positions was approaching equilibrium [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook Under the impetus of cost support, increased production, and a slight reduction in inventory, the sentiment in the stainless steel market is bullish. However, the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. The market is still in a game stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6].