波动加剧，如何看待锡价后市走势？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the context of macro - easing and widespread price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment for buying tin prices is strong. However, the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the recent steady increase in inventory suppress the sustainability of tin price increases. In the short term, tin prices are expected to mainly operate in a wide - range high - level oscillation [2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Since mid - to late February 2026, the security situation in northern Myanmar has become tense again. The focus of this round of tension is in the Kutkai area in northern Shan State. The conflict is due to intensified contradictions between TNLA and MNDAA, which has affected local residents' lives and surrounding economic and trade exchanges [5] - Myanmar is crucial in global tin ore supply. But the main tin concentrate production in Myanmar is in the Man Maw mining area in Mong Hsuen County, Wa State, which is not directly involved in the Kutkai conflict. Transport routes also differ, and short - term "hard interruptions" in cross - border tin concentrate transportation are unlikely. However, the complexity and uncertainty of the situation in northern Myanmar still require continuous tracking [5][6] - During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased, and the post - festival recovery was slow. In Jiangxi, due to insufficient scrap supply, the supply of crude tin was tight, and the refined tin output remained at a low level [13] Demand Side - The core consumption of tin is in the solder (electronic welding) field, with strong demand resilience. When industries such as AI servers and advanced semiconductor packaging expand, the market tends to view tin as a "growth - type small metal" and raise its valuation. But currently, the demand for semiconductors in the AI field is still at a low level [9] - In the short - term, most downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work, and demand release is limited. After the price reached the high level of 430,000 yuan again, it further suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness. Some downstream enterprises are still on holiday and plan to resume work after the Lantern Festival on March 3rd. The demand recovery strength and post - holiday terminal consumption performance need further observation [12]