棉花：等待新的驱动20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The ICE cotton futures rebounded due to the falling dollar but lacked substantial fundamental support and eventually fell back. The market is awaiting the US cotton weekly export sales data on Thursday to see if it can support the ICE cotton fundamentals [2] - The trend strength of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral view [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,205 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33% and a night - session closing price of 15,250 yuan/ton with a 0.30% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,055 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decline and a night - session closing price of 21,105 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase. ICE US cotton 5 was at 64.17 cents/pound with a 0.02% increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 514,640 hands, a decrease of 33,177 hands from the previous day, and the position was 1,159,387 hands, a decrease of 5,259 hands. The trading volume of CY2605 was 12,460 hands, a decrease of 1,999 hands, and the position was 14,010 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 11,379, an increase of 8, and the effective forecast was 1,132, an increase of 36. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 285, a decrease of 225 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,394 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day (-0.30%); South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan (-0.31%); Shandong was 16,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan (-0.20%); Hebei was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan (-0.02%); the 3128B index was 16,571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan (-0.12%); the Cotlook:A index was 74.95 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.95 cents (-1.25%); the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,869 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan (0.27%) [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was mixed, and the spot basis was stable. The better - traded basis for 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF05 + 1250 - 1350, self - pick up in Xinjiang. The lower - quoted basis for 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1150 - 1250, and the higher - quoted basis was mostly CF05 + 1250 and above, self - pick up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with partial fine - tuning. Some spinning mills received new orders recently, and the market trading atmosphere was slowly warming up. The quotations were divided: a few spinning mills with large previous price increases lowered their quotations, and a few spinning mills with small previous price increases and good recent sales slightly raised their quotations. Currently, spinning mills are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the operating rate of inland spinning mills continues to rise slightly [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly due to the falling dollar, reaching 64.88 cents/pound at one point, but finally fell back to 64.17 cents/pound due to the lack of substantial fundamental drivers. The market is waiting for the US cotton weekly export sales data on Thursday [2]