国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260305

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2]. - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2]. - Copper: Inventory increase restricts price recovery [2]. - Zinc: Oscillating with an upward bias [2]. - Lead: Inventory is stable, and prices are oscillating [2]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to the stabilization of risk appetite [2]. - Aluminum: Aluminum plants in the Middle East are reducing production, and supply concerns are intensifying [2]. - Alumina: Sell on rebounds [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Market sentiment is rather pessimistic [2]. - Palladium: Overall weak [2]. - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian mining end is catching up. Be wary of its speculative nature in March [2]. - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the mining end is increasing marginally, and the cost - support center is shifting upward [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing prices of some contracts decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. ETF holdings and inventories also decreased. For silver, prices of some contracts increased, trading volumes decreased, positions decreased slightly, and inventories declined. There were also changes in price differences and exchange rates [4]. - News: The US Senate failed to pass a vote to stop Trump's strike on Iran. The US Secretary of Defense said the US - Iran conflict might last eight weeks or longer. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that a 15% global tariff might be implemented this week. The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, and the US ISM services index in February reached a new high since mid - 2022. China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in February and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI data were also reported [4][6]. - Trend Strength: Gold trend strength is 1; silver trend strength is 1 [6]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased slightly, while the LME copper 3M electronic disk increased. Trading volumes and positions of both decreased. Copper inventories increased, and there were also changes in price differences and spot prices [7]. - News: US economic data was strong, and price pressure eased. China's manufacturing PMI data was reported. Japan's copper and copper alloy imports in January increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Chile's copper production in January decreased year - on - year. Revere copper products company is increasing US investment [7][9]. - Trend Strength: Copper trend strength is 0 [9]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased slightly, while the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, price differences, and inventories [10]. - News: The US - Iran conflict continued to escalate, and Putin considered cutting off gas supply to Europe [11][13]. - Trend Strength: Zinc trend strength is 1 [13]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged, while the LME lead 3M electronic disk decreased. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, price differences, and inventories [14]. - News: US economic data was strong, and China's manufacturing PMI data was reported [15]. - Trend Strength: Lead trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Fundamentals: The Shanghai tin main contract price decreased first and then increased. The LME tin 3M electronic disk increased. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spot prices [18]. - News: The US - Iran conflict might last 8 weeks or longer. Qatar will stop liquefied natural gas production on Wednesday. US non - manufacturing activity in February expanded at the fastest rate since 2022. The EU is expected to be exempt from the US 15% tariff increase [18][20]. - Trend Strength: Tin trend strength is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The prices of the aluminum main contract, alumina main contract, and aluminum alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volumes, positions, price differences, inventories, and spot prices [21]. - News: An oil tanker in the Mediterranean was bombed, and the US ADP employment in February increased. The US - Iran conflict and energy - related news also affected the market [23]. - Trend Strength: Aluminum trend strength is 1; alumina trend strength is - 1; aluminum alloy trend strength is 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentals: The prices of platinum and palladium contracts showed different trends. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and price differences [24]. - News: News about the Iran situation, US employment, tariffs, the Fed, and the energy situation was reported [27]. - Trend Strength: Platinum trend strength is 0; palladium trend strength is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The prices of the nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract changed. There were also changes in trading volumes, positions, and industrial chain - related prices [29]. - News: Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and some nickel mines in different regions have production - related news such as restarts, production cuts, and sanctions [29][30][34]. - Trend Strength: Nickel trend strength is 0; stainless steel trend strength is 0 [36].