格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The bond futures market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of bond futures were flat, showing a narrow - range horizontal fluctuation throughout the day. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.05%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.05% [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly higher, fell in the morning session, rebounded, and then declined unilaterally in the afternoon, closing near the lowest point with a 2.97% drop and a trading volume of 3.16 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 3.05 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 409.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.27%, compared with 1.26% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42%, compared with 1.45% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield dropped 1.59 basis points to 1.33%, the 5 - year dropped 1.32 basis points to 1.53%, the 10 - year dropped 0.39 basis points to 1.78%, and the 30 - year dropped 0.75 basis points to 2.28% [1] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0% (previous value 49.3%), the production index was 49.6% (previous value 50.6%), the new order index was 48.6% (previous value 49.2%), the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% (previous value 49.4%), the construction business activity index was 48.2% (previous value 48.8%), and the service business activity index was 49.7% (previous value 49.5%) [1] - The US ISM service index in February rose to 56.1, up 2.3 points from the previous month, reaching a new high since mid - 2022. The new order sub - index climbed to 58.6, a new high in over a year, and the order backlog index soared 11.9 points, reaching a nearly four - year high [1] Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 165.4 billion yuan. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with a narrowing decline. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month - on - month and the PPI rising 0.4% month - on - month [2] - The official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, and the service business activity index was 49.7%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation in February. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]