橡胶：震荡偏强20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,740 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,695 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The trading volume was 370,025 lots, down 88,448 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 152,591 lots, down 7,755 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 115,070 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,221 lots [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of "spot - futures main" was - 140 yuan, down 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main" was - 1,090 yuan, up 15 yuan. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 125 yuan, down 5 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,450 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars; STR20 was 2,040 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars; SMR20 was 2,030 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars; SIR20 was 1,970 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market generally decreased [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons, or 1.82%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.52%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, or 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 1.32%, and that of light - colored rubber increased by 1% [2][3]. - In March, semi - steel tire foreign trade orders were sufficient, but geopolitical factors increased the shipping resistance in the Middle East and other regions. The domestic sales were in the post - holiday replenishment stage, with insufficient inventory and low order fulfillment rate, and the production - sales differentiation intensified [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [1].