格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260305

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $5151.60 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.35% to $83.77 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 0.22% to 1144.20 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 1.53% to 21546 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 4, the global largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 18 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1081.038 tons. The global largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust's holdings decreased by 33.81 tons, with the current holding at 15947.57 tons [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 12.5% [1] - The US Senate's first vote on the Iranian "war powers resolution" did not pass the vote to stop Trump from striking Iran without congressional authorization [1] - The US defense secretary said the US - Iran conflict may last 8 weeks or longer. Iran denied secret peace - talks rumors and is ready for a long - term war [1] - In February, the US private sector added 63,000 new jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000. However, the January data was revised down from 22,000 to 11,000 [1] - The US ISM services index in February rose to 56.1, up 2.3 points from the previous month, reaching a new high since mid - 2022. The new orders sub - index climbed to 58.6, and the order backlog index soared 11.9 points [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the US dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.82. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose for the third consecutive day to 4.103%. On Tuesday, due to the strengthening of the dollar and rising Treasury yields, precious metals declined. On Wednesday, with the slight decline of the dollar index, the rebound of US stocks, and the interruption of Dubai air freight, precious metals rose slightly [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control positions to prevent risks [2]