中辉有色观点-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Hold long positions. The long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, and short - term attention should be paid to structural entry opportunities [1]. - Silver: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Short - term participation is difficult, and attention should be paid to the risk - reward ratio [1]. - Copper: Hold long positions. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc: The rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1]. - Lead: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term price rebound is under pressure [1]. - Tin: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term price rebound is under pressure [1]. - Aluminum: Shows a relatively strong trend. The short - term price will continue to be relatively strong [1]. - Nickel: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term price rebound is under pressure [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Rebound. It is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Polysilicon: Fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to participate with caution [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound. Wait for the signal of increased positions and stabilization [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Market Performance: In the New York late - trading session, the precious metals market generally closed higher. Spot gold rose 0.84% to $5131.75, spot silver rose 1.45% after surging during the session, and spot platinum rose more than 3% [2]. - Core Logic: The US data is strong, and the Iran situation is tense. The long - term logic of gold remains solid. The short - term safe - haven demand may increase, and the precious metals bull market has entered the "second half" [3][4]. - Strategy Recommendation: The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, with support around 1120. For silver, pay attention to the support around 21000 [4]. 3.2 Copper - Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose slightly. The trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased, and the inventory increased [5]. - Core Logic: The global copper mine supply is tight, and the production expectations of major copper mining companies have been lowered. The direct impact of the Iran war on copper is limited. The copper inventory has increased significantly, but the effective circulating inventory is expected to be tight [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, copper will fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips after a full correction. The medium - to - long - term trend remains positive. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [100000, 104000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12800, 13400] US dollars/ton [7]. 3.3 Zinc - Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc rose slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc decreased, and the inventory increased [9]. - Core Logic: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and the inventory accumulation restricts the upward space [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be cautiously bullish in the short term, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the medium - to - long - term, go long on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3350] US dollars/ton [11]. 3.4 Aluminum - Market Performance: The prices of LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum rose, while the price of alumina decreased slightly. The inventory of aluminum increased [12]. - Core Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The short - term supply in the Middle East is disrupted. The inventory is a factor suppressing the price, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips in the short term, pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [24000 - 26000] [15]. 3.5 Nickel - Market Performance: The prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose slightly, and the price of stainless steel rose slightly. The inventory of nickel decreased slightly, and the inventory of stainless steel increased significantly [16]. - Core Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Indonesia's nickel production quota will be reduced, but the expectation of additional quota weakens the tightening expectation. The downstream stainless steel market is in a seasonal off - season, and the inventory increase suppresses the price [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesia's policy and the inventory change of downstream stainless steel. The main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [19]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened sharply lower and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day [21]. - Core Logic: The total inventory of lithium carbonate is likely to continue to decline in March. The supply - demand gap expectation is strengthened, and it may maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock operation [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and operate cautiously in the range of [150000 - 160000] [23].