国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Awaiting steel mill复产, the ore price rebounds from a low level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: The first round of price cuts has started, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Steam coal: Lack of upward support, short - term price with narrow - range fluctuations [2][20]. - Logs: A game between expectations and reality, with small - scale fluctuations [2][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of I2605 was 752.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (- 0.20%); the open interest decreased by 7,288 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most varieties declined slightly [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [4][5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,071 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,212 yuan/ton, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions decreased slightly [8]. - Macro and Industry News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft outline of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the government work report on February 27; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26; steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data showed changes in late February [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of silicon - iron contracts increased, and the trading volume and open interest were at certain levels. Spot prices of some varieties increased. There were changes in various price spreads [12]. - Macro and Industry News: The prices of silicon - iron and silicomanganese in some regions increased; the manganese ore quotes for April 2026 from multiple mines increased; the silicon - iron electricity prices in some regions changed; the manganese ore freight rates increased; South Africa's manganese ore export volume in January 2026 increased [12][13][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and the open interest decreased. Most spot prices remained stable, with a small decline in some varieties. There were changes in various price spreads [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased on March 4; the coking coal online auction on March 4 had a 28% non - successful bid rate, with prices rising and falling [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Steam Coal - Fundamental Tracking: The prices of steam coal in different regions and at different calorific values showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year. The long - term agreement prices in February decreased [21]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 4, the sentiment in the northern port market was average, with low trading volume. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. Indonesia set its 2026 domestic coal supply target and preliminary production target [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 0 [22]. Logs - Fundamental Tracking: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts showed different changes. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with small increases in some [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [26].