铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, strong US economic data has boosted risk appetite, but geopolitical and trade risks remain. In the US, the ADP employment and ISM services data in February were significantly better than expected, while geopolitical and trade risks such as the Middle - East conflict and potential tariff hikes persist. In China, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in February were weaker than expected, but the RatingDog PMIs showed marginal improvement in demand and profit expectations. A - shares are expected to have a technical rebound and may shift towards defensive styles [2][3]. - For precious metals, the short - term adjustment is not over, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to rise due to geopolitical tensions and macro - environment uncertainties [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term due to strong fundamental support and strategic resource competition [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are strongly supported by the expanding supply gap caused by the Middle - East conflict [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with potential impacts from overseas supply [10]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise, following macro and cost trends [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with macro factors playing a major role [12]. - Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, supported by delayed refinery复产 but limited by weak demand [13][14]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation due to supply improvement expectations and market uncertainties [15]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain strongly volatile, supported by the Indonesian government's production target cut and cost increase [16]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and stabilize as demand recovers and supply is limited during the Two Sessions [17][18]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and stabilize, with improving demand after the Two Sessions and high inventory pressure [19]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the first - round coke price cut, supply - demand changes, and the Two Sessions' impact on steel mills [20]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as Brazilian soybean exports increase and US soybean exports may slow down [21][22]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be strongly volatile before the MPOB report, supported by potential drought in Indonesia and oil prices [23][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: US economic data such as February ADP employment and ISM services data were better than expected, but geopolitical and trade risks such as the Middle - East conflict and potential 15% global tariffs remain. The US stock market rose, the dollar index fell, and gold, silver, and copper prices oscillated upwards, while the upward momentum of oil prices weakened. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation and non - farm employment data [2]. - Domestic: The official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in February were weaker than expected, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and SMEs. However, the RatingDog PMIs showed improvement. A - shares were weakly volatile, and are expected to have a technical rebound and shift towards defensive styles. The market will focus on the economic situation at the beginning of the year and the policy tone of the Two Sessions [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures rebounded slightly. The rise was due to the callback of the dollar index and the escalation of the Middle - East situation. The adjustment of precious metal prices is not over, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm employment report on Friday [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper prices showed positive trends. The US ADP employment data was better than expected, and the Fed may have more reasons to keep interest rates unchanged. Chile's copper exports in February are reported. Fundamentally, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term due to supply - demand tightness and strategic resource competition [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices rose. The Middle - East conflict has affected aluminum supply, and the supply gap is expected to expand, driving up aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the alumina futures price fell slightly. The market should pay attention to the impact of overseas supply on the domestic market. Alumina prices are expected to continue to oscillate [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose. The cost of scrap aluminum has increased, and cast aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise following macro and cost trends [11]. Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed positive trends. Strong US economic data has temporarily alleviated the impact of the Middle - East situation. The zinc market has a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [12]. Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead prices showed positive trends. The recovery of downstream demand is limited, but the delay of refinery复产 provides support. Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [13][14]. Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin prices showed positive trends. The supply improvement expectation is strengthened, but the supply is still tight in reality. Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation [15]. Nickel - On Wednesday, Shanghai nickel and LME nickel prices showed positive trends. The Indonesian government has lowered the nickel production target, and the cost of nickel is expected to increase. Nickel prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. With the recovery of demand and limited supply during the Two Sessions, steel prices are expected to oscillate and stabilize [17][18]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot market trading volume increased, and after the Two Sessions, demand is expected to recover. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is still high. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and stabilize [19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The first - round coke price cut has started, and the market is affected by supply - demand changes and the impact of the Two Sessions on steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [20]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase, and US soybean exports may slow down. Prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil futures prices rose slightly. Indonesia may face a more severe drought, and the MPOB report is awaited. Before the report, funds are cautious, and palm oil prices are expected to be strongly volatile [23][24].